381
FNUS74 KEPZ 201526
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Slide Piles RX...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
826 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MST on November 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. For
today, rain showers persist through the day but be more scattered
for the afternoon. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
Winds increase this afternoon from the southwest, gusting to
over 30 mph. Drier conditions with no chance of rain for Friday.
Another storm system brings rain and snow chances Saturday night
into Sunday. Temperatures will be around normal into next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers, possibly
                    mixed with snow showers, likely in the morning. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms through the day.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 40.
Min humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 35 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning
                    and early afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 23 mph shifting to the west
                    around 29 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12600 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........88  88  78  78  78  71  71  71
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC NONENONENONE
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH NONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).60  40  30  30  30  10  10  10
Temp............37  38  40  40  39  38  36  32
RH..............100 92  92  85  82  79  82  92
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..12  12  13  13  15  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.24  24  28  28  32  32  35  35
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.23  23  23  23  29  29  29  29
Vrate kt-ft/1K..33  33  33  33  38  38  38  38
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 25.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 23 mph decreasing to around 12 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73  73  73  68  68  68  26  26  26  7   7   7
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............30  29  28  27  26  25  25  26  26  27  27  28
RH..............96  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  9   9   9   7   7   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.22  22  22  18  18  18  15  15  15  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.23  23  23  23  15  15  15  15  12  12  12  12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..20  20  20  20  1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2400 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   6   6   9   9   9   7   7   7   17  17  17
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............28  28  29  31  35  38  42  45  44  42  40  36
RH..............100 100 85  72  64  59  55  50  48  50  55  64
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12  7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  14  14  14  14  9   9   9   9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   2   2   2   9   9   9   9   7   7   7   7
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s.
Light winds.
.SUNDAY...
Colder. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms
and snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.
South winds around 6 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. West
winds around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Matthew Barone
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2526400.1/EPZ
.DELDT 11/20/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matthew.barone@usda.gov