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FOUS30 KWBC 221558
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...16z Update...

Introduced a Marginal Risk with the 16z update, as the latest 12z
CAMs support a lower-end, localized flash flood threat later today
with mostly clear skies and building insolation over portions of
southeast into central AZ. SB CAPE should climb to ~250 J/kg with
updrafts tending to initially favor higher terrain and points
north, as storm motions of 15-25 kts to the north to northeast are
expected within the mean flow. With precipitable water values
anticipated to build to around 0.8" (well above the 90th percentile
and more representative of September/October), a period of localized
1"+/hr rates are possible with small downdrafts and relatively
fast motions generally capping hourly totals around 0.5". Some
repeating and training of cells may locally support hourly totals
of 0.5"+ and short-term (2-3 hour) totals of 1.5-2.0" are possible.
This may result in a few localized instances of flash flooding
(mainly concentrated late in the period from 00z-09z).

Churchill


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

The latest guidance continues to depict a southwest-northeast
orientated axis of heavy rain panning from the northern part of the
Hill Country to northeast Texas. General consensus suggests 1 to 3
inches however, the ECMWF is persistent on the higher end with
amounts 3 to 5+ inches and placed further south/southwest than
other solutions. This is somewhat concerning, as this brings the
forecast axis of QPF even more into alignment with areas that
realized heavy rainfall in prior days.

A Slight Risk remains in effect and seems appropriate given at
least three days of recovery from the previous heavy rainfall
event and uncertainty with regard to the amount of training and
resultant QPF.

Campbell/Churchill


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR NORTHEAST
TEXAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

The broad area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to shift
to the eastern portion of the Southern Plains and the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The highest amounts are expected to focus over
the AK-LA-TX region. While areal averages of 1 to 3 inches are
forecast, isolated maximums of 4+ inches will be possible. There
will be some overlap of heavy rainfall from the previous day which
will lower local FFGs. Training and back building of storms may be
possible, particularly for norther Texas and Arkansas. A Slight
Risk is in effect from northeast Texas/northern Louisiana to
western Tennessee/northwest Mississippi.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt