890
FOUS30 KWBC 240025
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

Showers and thunderstorms have fired up ahead of highly modified
Pacific front/pseudo dryline which are along a broken line and
moving into/across portions the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau.
Its southern edge is generally delimited by the 6C isotherm at 700
hPa. Other longer duration, elevated showers and thunderstorms
stretch northeast towards the Red River of the South. This
precipitation pattern makes up the tail end of a warm conveyor
belt around a deep layer cyclone in southeast CO. Precipitable
water values are rising near and ahead of this activity, forecast
to rise to 1.5-1.75" with time. MU CAPE is 2000+ J/kg in spots, and
effective bulk shear is rather high, 40-70 kts regionally. This
should lead to increased forward propagation of the convective band
across south-central and central TX with time. Even so, hourly
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are probably through 12z as
mesocyclones form along the band, which is expected to solidify
with time as atmospheric moisture increases.

Rainfall is forecast to become particularly heavy across portions
of south-central and central TX after 03z, which is generally
agreed upon by the 18z HREF and 12z REFS guidance. Based on those
pieces of guidance, along with radar reflectivity trends, there was
a southeast shift in the risk areas when compared to continuity.
Flash flood guidance regionally has been depressed by the heavy
rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday, with values in the 2-3"/3 hour
time frame common, which should be exceeded on a scattered basis
within the Slight Risk area overnight.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

...20z Update...

Organized convection will be ongoing across North Texas and into
southeastern Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex region Mon AM, moving
east across Arkansas and into the Mid-South during the day. The
best potential for heavy rainfall will center around North Texas
initially before spreading eastward. Guidance has consolidated on a
more southern solution relative to prior days, and this includes
the latest 12z hi-res model suite (which now extends through the
full period). The rather broad Slight Risk is now relatively low
confidence, given expected localized totals of around 3-4" being
near or just above FFGs across northern portions of the SLGT and at
or below FFGs across southern portions of the SLGT (though still
maintained at SLGT here given the highest potential for localized
5" exist to the south where instability is greatest...despite these
probabilities being less than 20% per 12z HREF exceedance probs).

Churchill/Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...20z Update...

Little change to the inherited outlook, as guidance remains in
relatively good agreement concerning localized totals as high as
2-3". Should these occur over a short enough period (or exceed 3"+
in areas farther south) than isolated instances of flash flooding
are possible.

Churchill


...Previous Discussion...

The low pressure system is expected to continue advancing eastward
then will track northeast while weakening on Tuesday. This will
shift the focus of convection to south-central/Southeast during
this period. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall was maintained
from the previous Day 4 outlook. Areal averages of 1 to 3 inches
will be common.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt