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FOUS30 KWBC 241540
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

...16Z Outlook Update...

The overall forecast philosophy remains on track for this update.
Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop from
southwest to northeast within an 850mb low-level jet axis extending
from near Austin, TX through the ArkLaTex. Some of the convection
will interact with left over low-level boundaries from this
morning`s convection, further enhancing rainfall potential and
resulting in localized 2-4 inch daily totals. The greatest risk of
these enhanced rainfall totals will focus around northeast Texas
into northwest Louisiana and vicinity.

The overall convective scenario should translate eastward toward
the Lower Mississippi Valley through the overnight hours and become
increasingly displaced from surface-based buoyancy focused across
southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana. Flash flooding should remain
possible, but gradually decrease in coverage with eastward extent.

Risk areas across Oklahoma, northern/central Arkansas, and parts of
west-central Texas were trimmed as ongoing convective trends
suggest that any remaining flash flood threat has lessened for the
remainder of the forecast period.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

A SW-NE axis of thunderstorms setup overnight allowing training
over central Texas. Storms are expected to linger over parts of
central Texas at the start of the D1 period while ramping up over
northeast Texas and adjacent areas as the upper trough/low
advances eastward. Localized accumulations of around 3-4" being
near or just above FFGs across northern portions of the Slight and
at or below FFGs across southern portions of the Slight. Guidance
continues to suggest the highest totals will focus near the
Arkansas and Louisiana border and over northeast Texas. A broad
Marginal Risk spans from central Texas to western portions of
Tennessee and northwest Alabama.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

The low pressure system will continue advancing through the Gulf
states and into the Southeast/Carolinas. The latest guidance
continues to depict localized totals as high as 2-3" especially
near the higher terrain of the region. Should these occur over a
short enough period (or exceed 3"+ in areas farther south) than
isolated instances of flash flooding are possible. A Marginal Risk
remains in effect from eastern Mississippi to extreme southwest
Virginia and western North and South Carolina.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025 - 12Z Thu Nov 27 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...

An atmospheric river directed toward the Pacific Northwest will
advect copious moisture towards the terrain, with some 2 to 3 inch
rainfall totals likely. This will increase the threat for runoff
and localized flash flooding therefore a Marginal Risk is in
effect.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt