Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
162 FOUS30 KWBC 281858 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 158 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 Day 1 Valid 16Z Fri Nov 28 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Cook/Wegman Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... An uptick in convective coverage and intensity is expected Saturday night as low level convergence increases across Southeast TX with instability around 1000 j/kg. The cold front moving through will be progressive, likely limiting the duration of this event. However the 12z high res models indicate a likelihood that we see some convective development ahead of the front around 00z, with frontal convection then merging with this activity overnight. This evolution would allow for some brief training resulting in locally higher rainfall amounts. While some placement differences exist, both the 12z HREF and 06z REFS show neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 3" in the 30-60% range, and the HREF does show some 3hr FFG exceedance. Thus a localized flash flood risk remains, mainly focused across any more susceptible urban areas that see higher rainfall rates. Chenard Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Chenard Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt