Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
600 FXUS64 KEWX 142305 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 605 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures continue through early next week. - Weak front brings low chances (10-20%) for rain this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 An anomalous upper-level ridge is holding firm over Texas and will continue to do so through Wednesday. Upper-air observations and models indicate max 500mb heights near 594-595 dm, signifying a ridge about as strong as historically observed for this time of year. While the lower sun angle, easterly low to mid-level winds, and marginal moisture return are helping to partly mitigate higher temperatures being realized at the surface, abnormal daytime warmth continues with highs remaining 5 to 10 degrees above average for mid- October. Forecast lows tonight range from near 70 along the Rio Grande to the mid 50s to low 60s for the rest of South Central Texas. A weak mid- level inverted trough is currently trekking across South Texas and will bring some shallow added moisture to the Rio Grande overnight, but rain chances are kept out of the forecast with modeled moisture profiles remaining very dry aloft. Wednesday looks similar to today with abundant sunshine and a dry heat with highs again in the upper 80s to low 90s, followed by another night with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s for most of the region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Beginning around Thursday, a prominent trough pressing east across the Rockies and a small inverted upper trough arriving over South Texas will work to move upper-level ridging away from South Central Texas. Unseasonable warmth is expected to continue with highs remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s into next week, but this disruption in the upper-level synoptic pattern at least opens up an opportunity for more variable weather as we transition to late October. As troughing amplifies, southerly flow is expected to strengthen and increase moisture transport from Gulf. The core of this moist plume is directed over East Texas in the latest medium range guidance, but its western flanks support a low chance for isolated thunderstorms mainly along and east of Highway 77. The larger trough approaching from the western US swings over our area Saturday, accompanied by a weak Pacific front. There has been some souring of rain chances and amounts in ensemble model guidance, but uncertainty remains as trough evolution across the Rockies shows considerable variance. Lifting along the front and over the moist axis still supports at least low chances (around 10 to 20 percent) for isolated rain and thunder Saturday into Saturday night for mainly the Hill Country, I-35 corridor north of I-10, and the Coastal Plains. If the front arrives during peak heating, compressional heating with westerly to northwesterly low-level flows across the frontal surface suggests a chance for some daily record highs in the low to mid 90s Saturday east of the Balcones Escarpment. A dry airmass is expected to follow the front, but with the trough quickly sliding to the east and zonal flow rapidly returning aloft, the prospects for more seasonable afternoons this weekend and early next week are low... highs well above normal are expected to persist into midweek next week. While post-frontal winds look light at this time, low RH values below 25 percent on Sunday could present some elevated fire weather concerns if weekend rains remain light and sparse. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Few changes to the previous aviation forecast. VFR ceilings are expected along with clear skies at AUS, SAT, and SSF after 02Z. Meanwhile, at DRT, persistent SCT layer will turn BKN late tonight and continue through late Wednesday morning. BKN layer around 1500 feet is expected along with east-southeasterly winds. Otherwise, VFR at the other sites and a shift to easterly to northeasterly winds by midday Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 64 91 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 91 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 61 88 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 90 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 62 91 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 91 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 91 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 66 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...MMM