551
FXUS64 KEWX 150515
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Dry weather along with above normal temperatures to persist
  across south central Texas through this weekend and well into
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Convection from yesterday evening has ended, with the highest
amounts noted across southern Gonzales/northern DeWitt and central
Karnes Counties where radar estimated rainfall amounts were up to
around 1.5". Elsewhere, amounts were 1/4" or less, especially
farther west into the I-35 corridor.

Current water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low currently over
Nuevo Leon Mexico with some mid and upper level moisture moving
northward across the region. This low is expected to drift north-
northwestward today, with any rain chances likely remaining confined
to the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande. Otherwise, expect
another round of high temperatures remaining a few degrees above
normal today and Sunday with mid 90s to near 100 degrees in the
forecast. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. Some morning low clouds
can be expected both days, with clouds slowest to clear over the
southern Edwards Plateau region. A few spots in the coastal plains
may briefly see heat index values approaching 108 degrees. However,
breezy south winds will promote efficient mixing, which should allow
for dew point temperature decreases during peak heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For much of the upcoming week, the broad subtropical ridge axis
remains the dominant weather feature across much of the southern
U.S. There are some differences noted in the operational runs of the
GFS and ECMWF in showing some potential for weakening of the ridge
late in the forecast period. While the GFS solution favors an upper
trough developing over the southern U.S. plains late in the period,
ensembles from both of the mentioned models do not agree. For now,
we prefer to keep the forecast dry along with temperatures remaining
above climatological normals for mid to late August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

MVFR ceilings are slowly developing over the I-35 corridor and
Hill Country, and will eventually expand west into the southern
Edwards Plateau after sunrise. As seen previous nights, coverage
may bounce between SCT and BKN ceilings at times. Around 15-16Z,
VFR conditions will return across the area. South to southeasterly
wind increases late this morning through the evening, with the
highest gusts along the Rio Grande up to 25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            98  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             98  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional  100  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          101  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM....Platt
AVIATION...27