586
FXUS64 KEWX 012349
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
649 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect through Friday evening for most of
  South Central Texas.

- Low to medium rain chances linger through the weekend then
  decrease heading into next week.

- Fall-like temperatures next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows a 500mb low over the TX/OK
Panhandles producing southwesterly flow over most of TX. At the
a Pacific cold front extends across the northwestern part of our
CWA. This is disrupting the flow with southeasterlies continuing
over the Coastal Plains, but variable wind directions around the
front convection in its vicinity. This morning`s soundings at DRT
and FWD show PW above 2 inches again which is in the 90th
percentile of the climatological record. The upper low will
progress toward the northeast tonight, but the trailing trough
will remain over West TX. The surface front will move slowly
toward the east. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop tonight
across the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. With
the high PW airmass locally heavy rain will continue to be
possible. High resolution models are showing a line of
thunderstorms moving across from the Hill Country to the Coastal
Plains. A Flood Watch remains in effect for most of this area. We
expect widespread rainfall totals of 1-4 inches with isolated
amounts up to six inches. The higher rainfall totals will lead to
flash flooding. The front will exit our CWA Friday morning and
stall along the coast. Rain chances will continue Friday and
Friday night, but the airmass will be drier. Rainfall totals will
be moderate and the flood threat will be diminished.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

With the front stalled across Deep South Texas, there will be
continuing chances for rain into the weekend. Rainfall totals
will continue to be more moderate. A few showers may linger into
Monday. By Tuesday the front will have moved away and upper level
ridging will move back over Texas bringing dry weather back. With
cloudy skies and scattered showers the long term period will start
off cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s Saturday. From there
temperatures will slowly increase reaching the low to mid 80s by
Tuesday and staying there. These are about normal for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Poor flying conditions expected for the rest of this evening as CIGs
continue to lower as the result of abundant moisture and off and on
SHRA and isolated TSRAs. Added in TEMPOs for IFR CIGs at all I-35
sites for next couple hours. Otherwise tried to fine tune the
best windows we expect to see convection at the terminals.
Currently Hi- Res model guidance indicates things quieting down
later this evening before more redevelopment occurs in the
overnight hours. This convection should once again continue into
the early morning hours before becoming more scattered to
isolated by midday tomorrow. As for CIGs we likely will hover
between MVFR and at times IFR especially overnight into the
morning hours. CIGs should slowly improve in the late afternoon
hours as activity finally becomes less widespread over the
terminals. Much different story for KDRT as the front will have
passed through the area with a 30 percent chance of some
redevelopment in the afternoon hours. Otherwise VFR CIGs can be
expected through the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  82  71  80 / 100  90  90  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  82  70  80 / 100  90  90  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  82  69  80 / 100  90  80  60
Burnet Muni Airport            70  79  67  76 /  80  90  90  80
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  85  67  79 /  10  30  70  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  81  69  78 / 100  90  90  70
Hondo Muni Airport             69  80  68  79 /  80  70  90  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  82  69  81 / 100  90  80  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  85  71  83 /  90  80  70  80
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  81  71  80 / 100  90  80  60
Stinson Muni Airport           72  82  71  81 / 100  90  80  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ171>173-186>194-
203>209-218>225-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...CJM