Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
872 FXUS64 KEWX 290543 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1219 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Periods of rain from today through Friday with the corridor of heaviest rain focused across the Southern Edwards Plateau and along the Rio Grande - Passage of a cold front sometime early next week with additional rain and thunderstorm chances followed by a drier airmass featuring cooler mornings in it`s wake. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Shortwave troughing in the southwesterly flow aloft, combined with added Eastern Pacific moisture and energy from Vance, will result in periods of rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorm activity. The initial activity reaches the Rio Grande not too long after midnight and pushes eastward across the Hill Country to locations along the Balcones Escarpment and I-35 corridor later this morning. Models continue to indicate a fairly steep gradient in the rain chances and amounts as a result between the western side of the I-35 Corridor the Coastal Plains through at least tonight. Friday morning into the afternoon, however, does seem to show an east-northeast pivot with the rain axis as secondary shortwave energy advances through the region. This is when rain chances seem to be the best from the I-35 corridor eastward through the Coastal Plains. The axis of heaviest rainfall with this event remains forecast for locations along the Rio Grande into the Southern Edwards Plateau and Western Hill Country later tonight into early Friday. The heaviest activity in this axis could produce hourly rainfall rates around or in excess of 2 inches. This would be where the greatest potential for flooding would develop, including any possible responses on the Devils or Pecos River, and any nearby draws or tributaries. The rain amounts through the next 48 hours have slightly increased compared to previous forecast packages, where the Southern Edwards Plateau could see 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated amounts up to 6 inches. Elsewhere, the rainfall primarily is beneficial with the amounts ranging between 0.5 to 1.5 inches across the Hill Country to near the Balcones Escarpment. Totals then quickly drop off, mainly east of the I-35 corridor through the Coastal Plains. The cloudiness and rains will keep daytime highs mostly limited into the 70s for the majority in the short term. There will be areas in the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau that maintain only in the 60s. The Coastal Plains is the primary exception where afternoon highs could reach into the low 80s, especially today. Lows maintain in the 60s for most, with a few upper 50s in the Hill Country to start off Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 The primary shortwave exits the region Friday night and this will result in the higher rain chances diminishing at that time. However, enough lingering moisture and a final piece or two of energy aloft coming out from the Desert Southwest could result in additional isolated to scattered activity Saturday, primarily from the Hill Country through our northeastern most counties. These rain chances do look to dwindle by the evening, yielding to favorable weather for Trick-or-Treating. The forecast then trends drier from Sunday into the daytime hours Monday with some warmer afternoon highs up into the mid 80s given the return of greater sunshine with less cloud cover. The medium range guidance continues to show some differences but are still indicating the potential for a stronger storm system that develops and advances into the southern and central plains. This brings a cold front to the region sometime overnight into early Tuesday. The boundary should bring another opportunity for rain and storms to the area. This activity has the potential to be a little more organized with stronger storms with the combination of shear and at least some limited instability. Behind the front, expect for winds to shift out of the northwest and the flow will help to usher in a drier airmass with cooler lows at least for the region as we close out the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 MVFR and IFR conditions are forecast to prevail for most of the overnight hours into early Thursday afternoon the local area terminals. In addition to low cigs, low vsbys are forecast to affect terminals through the period. By 18Z, VFR conditions are forecast for the I-35 corridor with light rain or light drizzle happening. For KDRT, there is not much improvement as far as cigs staying at MVFR levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 64 75 64 / 30 10 50 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 78 62 76 63 / 30 10 50 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 78 63 75 63 / 40 10 60 20 Burnet Muni Airport 72 61 71 61 / 50 20 60 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 65 73 64 / 90 90 70 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 62 74 61 / 30 10 40 30 Hondo Muni Airport 76 65 74 64 / 70 30 70 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 78 62 76 64 / 40 10 60 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 63 79 66 / 20 10 30 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 64 75 65 / 60 20 60 20 Stinson Muni Airport 79 65 76 66 / 50 20 60 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...17