516
FXUS64 KEWX 160534
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier, sunnier, and warmer weather takes hold today and persists
  into the weekend and early next week.

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The last remaining downpours and storms that developed earlier this
evening in the San Antonio area dissipated prior to midnight. While
the low-level jet is expected to strengthen some overnight, which
could help lead to a light isolated shower closer to daybreak over
the southern Edwards Plateau or Hill Country, the high-resolution
models overall keeps the weather dry moving forward.

Although some semblance of troughing is forecast to persist over
West Texas today, the western extension of subtropical ridging over
the eastern half of the state will expand into our area, ushering in
drier mid-level air and subsidence. The result is largely rain-free
conditions for the region during the day under mostly sunny skies.
Highs in the mid to upper 90s are forecast for most areas along I-35
eastward and along Highway 90 southward, with upper 80s to low 90s
over the Hill Country. Heat indices in the warmest areas are forecast
to reach the low to mid 100s.

On Thursday, an upper level low over coastal northern Mexico becomes
displaced farther southwest, allowing more room for the ridge to
expand some more into our area. While the strength of the ridge
looks meager with 500mb heights of about 592 or 593 dm on the latest
guidance, this looks sufficient to keep conditions dry over our
region. Temperatures and heat indices are forecast to be similar to
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Medium range guidance continues to support broad ridging expanding
across the southern tier of the US throughout the weekend and into
early next week. The forecast ridge does not look very thermally
impressive, so while warm temperatures are forecast, temperature
anomalies in the latest ensembles hold right around average for this
time of year with daytime highs in the upper 90s and lows in the 70s.

The expanded ridge facilitates dry conditions heading into the
weekend and into next week. One wrinkle to this pattern is the
possibility of tropical development in the northern Gulf. Models
generally keep this system well to the east, bringing it onshore the
central Gulf coast. A brief coastal surge of moisture associated
with the disturbance could bring some isolated rain showers to the
Coastal Plains on Friday, but otherwise effects for the rest of
South-Central Texas look minimal at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

MVFR ceilings are beginning to build over SAT/SSF with these
ceilings expanding to AUS around 08Z and DRT closer to sunrise.
Ceilings will scatter mid to late morning with VFR conditions
expected the rest of the day. South to southeast wind will prevail
at sites with occasionally gusty wind from 20-25 knots from mid
morning into the early evening. Dry conditions are expected through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  72  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  73  93  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           99  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Tran
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...27