Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
449 FXUS64 KEWX 072336 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain possible across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and coastal plains for the rest of this afternoon. Localized flooding possible. - Dry conditions return on Monday across most areas of south central Texas with drier weather forecast for the rest of the work week. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... Light to moderate showers and isolated pockets of heavy rain are affecting most of south central Texas early this afternoon. This activity is forecast to persist across the local area and especially across the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and coastal plains through late afternoon. The cold front that moved across the local area on Saturday sits along the middle Texas coast with Gulf moisture being transported into the region from above the surface. Pwats are still elevated running from 2.0 to 2.4 inches across most of south central Texas with the potential for heavy rain placement across the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and coastal plains. The NAM, GFS, and other hires models suggest for a mid level low pressure to develop over the southern Edwards PLateau this afternoon. When looking at radar trends, a cyclonic circulation appears over the northwest part of Frio county and could be the feature the model guidance are seeing. This feature is forecast to push to the south into the Corpus Christi area this afternoon into the evening. With that said, the feature looks like to be the main driver combined with elevated pwat values to get additional rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches with isolated 4 inches through 7 PM CDT this evening. By this evening into the overnight hours, parts of the Rio Grande could still see lingering light showers. This trend persists into Monday with the rest of the local area staying dry. By Monday evening, drier conditions spread across south central Texas. Cooler temperatures are anticipated overnight with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s and Monday`s highs in the lower 80s to lower 90s across the local area. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... Dry weather conditions are forecast for the long term forecast period with some coastal shower and thunderstorm activity late week into the weekend especially during the afternoon hours. A warming trend is forecast throughout the week with highs back into the mid to upper 90s along the I-35 corridor and coastal plains areas and 80s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. && .AVIATION (00Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... Only light showers are seen south of terminals which will continue to move south into the evening leaving dry conditions at terminals for the start of the period. The most likely location for MVFR ceilings overnight is over the southern Edwards Plateau and along the Rio Grande including KDRT. Additionally, KSAT also has high chances to see MVFR ceilings given the higher rainfall amounts and wet ground. VCSH will be possible in the morning at KDRT and while rain chances extend into the afternoon, confidence is too low to include in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected at I-35 terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 70 91 66 94 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 91 63 93 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 92 65 94 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 67 86 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 89 73 92 / 30 20 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 89 68 93 / 20 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 93 63 95 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 90 61 92 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 91 69 94 / 20 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 93 70 95 / 20 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...27