051
FXUS64 KEWX 010627
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
127 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect through Friday evening for most of
  South Central Texas.

- Some storms tonight and Thursday may also be strong to severe.

- Low to medium rain chances linger through the weekend then
  decrease heading into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The latest GOES 19 Water Vapor imagery shows the upper low centered
over New Mexico this evening and slowly marching eastward. Out ahead
of it, southwesterly flow and a 40-60 kt southwesterly jet streak
will slide eastward. In combination with highly anomalous PWATs in
the 2-2.4" range and strong southeasterly low-level flow, showers
and storms will develop this evening, and slowly march eastward,
capable of intense rainfall rates. For tonight there is a level 2 of
4 (Slight) risk for flooding from the I-35 Corridor and westward,
and a level 3 of 4 (Moderate) risk for the western Hill Country,
Edwards Plateau, and northern Rio Grande Plains. HREF members and
REFS members show storms developing out west and marching east
through this morning, with torrential rainfall rates up to 2+" per
hour. For what it`s worth, some high res members of the WoFS and of
the HRRR show storms developing over the San Antonio metro ahead of
the primary line and frontal boundary.

Today, WPC places a Level 2 to 3 of 4 risk over much of south
central Texas, with a Level 3 of 4 (Moderate) risk in place for the
Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, southern Rio Grande Plains, and eastern
parts of the Edwards Plateau. Storms are likely to be ongoing
Thursday morning as a Pacific front slides south and east with time
during the day. Convection may redevelop in the afternoon and
evening hours today behind the initial line. It`s dependent on
instability behind the boundary and how far south and east it gets.
If the front stalls like the GFS and NAM/NAM 3km indicate,
redevelopment would occur along the I-35 Corridor Thursday night. We
could see widespread rainfall amounts of 1-4" with local amounts up
to 6-8" through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the weekend, some mid-level energy will remain in place which
may spark additional showers and storms each day, but the intensity
of storms shouldn`t be quite as high as it will be today and Friday.
The mid to upper level trough will get stuck over southwest Texas,
resulting in those continued rain and storm chances. There may be
some lingering showers Monday morning, but by the afternoon, things
look dry across much of south central Texas. Essentially Monday
through Wednesday of next week looks dry as weak zonal flow settles
in over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A rather tricky forecast this morning as the timing of convection
is more uncertain than usual. For now, will opt to reduce
prevailing TSRA to 15-19Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF as hi-res models
are more in line with storms moving through around then. Beyond
20Z, confidence drops off significantly and future TAFs will need
to address whether or not TSRA will redevelop Friday afternoon and
evening. MVFR ceilings look like a strong bet through at least
midday Friday before VFR returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  72  82  69 /  90  90  80  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  71  82  68 /  90  90  80  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  70  81  68 /  90  90  80  50
Burnet Muni Airport            82  70  79  66 /  90  60  70  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  69  85  65 /  50  10  30  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  71  80  67 /  90  80  80  50
Hondo Muni Airport             84  70  81  67 /  90  60  60  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  71  82  67 /  90  90  80  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  72  85  70 /  90  90  80  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  73  81  70 /  90  80  80  50
Stinson Muni Airport           89  73  82  70 /  90  80  80  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ171>173-183>193-
202>208-217>221-223-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...MMM