405
FXUS64 KEWX 131104
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
604 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Heat Advisory in effect noon through 7 PM for areas generally
  along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Above normal
  temperatures will persist into early next week, with additional
  heat headlines possible.

- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains
  through the rest of next week.

- Humid morning conditions and above average temperatures and
  peak heat indices will continue into next weekend.

 &&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The ridge currently impacting our area will move over North Texas
today thus keeping rain chances low once again. The main exception
would be for the coastal plains. Highs should be a degree or two today
but could still support Heat Advisory conditions once again over
the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. Expect nearly identical
conditions for Monday as the high continues to elongate and push
off to the north and east. This should allow most of the area to
continue to see high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 103
degrees particularly across the southern part of the area.
Additionally we could see some very isolated showers and
thunderstorms form across the Coastal Plains with the continued
Seabreeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The ridge currently impacting our area will move over North Texas
today thus keeping rain chances low once again. The main exception
would be for the coastal plains. Highs should be a degree or two today
but could still support Heat Advisory conditions once again over
the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. Expect nearly identical
conditions for Monday as the high continues to elongate and push
off to the north and east. This should allow most of the area to
continue to see high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 103
degrees particularly across the southern part of the area.
Additionally we could see some very isolated showers and
thunderstorms form across the Coastal Plains with the continued
Seabreeze.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An upper level ridge will continue to be centered northeast of
our area through at least the middle of next week, and began
expanding further west later in the week. Highs once more will
continue to range from the middle 90s to just above 100 degrees
each day through the middle of next week. Heat indices will
continue hovering around the 105-108 degree mark near the I-35
corridor and coastal plains. Seabreeze showers and thunderstorms
could impact the coastal plains every afternoon into the evening.
Most other locations should see mainly dry conditions. Towards the
end of the forecast period models are hinting at a pattern shift
which would finally drop temperature below 100 degrees and perhaps
see better chances for rain coverage over the area. Models
continue to disagree on how this occurs so continue to check back
as we get closer and models hopefully come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Morning low cloudiness was more aggressive Saturday than from
recent days as the onshore flow may have been enhanced by an
inverted trough over Mexico undercutting a broad ridge over the
central CONUS. This general pattern remains intact for today, so
will follow the persistence trend with the 3 I-35 sites. Winds
will also remain diurnally consistent with those of Saturday with
some SE gusts to around 25 knots in the early evening. More low
stratus are scheduled for Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 101  77 101 /   0  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77 100  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  99  75 100 /   0  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            76  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 100  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76 100  75 100 /   0  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77 100  77 100 /   0  30   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  99  77  99 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ173-191>194-205>209-220>225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...18