Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
267 FXUS64 KEWX 311947 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .UPDATE... Flood Watch remains in effect until noon Monday. We are seeing an outflow boundary push through the area and so far we are not seeing many showers and storms form before it. Currently it has made it past New Braunfels and continues moving south down the I-35 Corridor. Most areas behind this boundary are likely to not see as much heavy rain potential as the airmass behind it stabilizes including Williamson, Burnett, and Lee counties. We now expect areas ahead of the boundary to still see heavy rainfall as instability remains which includes the Edwards Plateau and Western Hill Country and any areas south. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain possible across most areas of south central Texas Sunday afternoon into Monday. Localized flooding possible. - A Flood Watch is in effect for most of south central Texas noon Sunday through noon Monday. - We dry out through the week with rain chances returning next weekend && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... Current radar imagery as of noon today shows showers and some storms backbuilding off a frontal boundary thats off a main complex near college station that continues to slide to the south and east. Meanwhile the frontal boundary continues to slide south across the area. Expect showers and storms to erupt off this boundary as it continues its crawl across the area. PWATs sitting anywhere from 1.7 up to 2 inches will make for any storms to be very efficient rainfall producers ahead of the front. As such a flood watch remains in effect for all our counties except Maverick and Dimmit counties until noon tomorrow. Widespread 1 to 2 inches with pockets of 3 to 5 inches and isolated spots up to 8 inches of rainfall is possible anywhere in the watch area. It`s still too difficult to pinpoint just where exactly the heaviest rainfall will occur as we are expecting several rounds of rainfall through Monday as the front stalls over the area and continues igniting showers and storms. WPC has expanded their level 2 of 4 risk (Slight) for excessive rainfall for today into tomorrow morning for almost our entire area except southern Maverick and Dimmit counties and keeps us in a level 1 of 4 risk (Marginal) for the entire area for Monday into Tuesday. Looking at latest guidance, most depict this first round to continue pushing off to the east mainly affecting northern areas of the CWA including the Austin Metro. We should see more storms fire along the boundary this evening as they slowly move from the hill country into the I-35 Corridor. Some model guidance shows yet another round of storms and possible heavy rain forming overnight and continuing into monday morning. Time will tell with what happens but locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds from 40-50mph will be possible in any of the stronger storms. Remember to stay weather aware and closely monitor weather conditions throughout this holiday weekend. Temperatures will be cooler in areas that remain in the cloud cover and rain with most seeing mid to upper 80s today with low 90s for Monday. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... Dry weather returns on Tuesday and remains through Friday. Rain chances return just in time for next weekend as we could see moisture from a tropical system or a disturbance move over mexico and impact our area however its far too early for any specifics at this time. Temperatures will be a slightly below normal values for most locations on Tuesday with a slow warming trend forecast for the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION (20Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A low confidence forecast on placement and timing of showers and convection in the TAF area as a front continues to make southward progress. While there is some ongoing shower and isolated embedded storm activity north, closer to KAUS, the atmosphere seems to be be stabilizing in wake of the boundary. Farther to the west/southwest where the temperatures are a bit warmer and the atmosphere is more unstable, there could be additional separate rounds, with a focus both this afternoon and once more overnight. KDRT could be the TAF site with the potential most impacts, followed by KSAT and KSSF. Otherwise, expect for a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions during the period with low and mid-level clouds. Winds will be generally light with the winds shifting more north/northeast behind the boundary. Otherwise, anticipate variable directions. Within or near any showers or storms, gusts could be higher to around 25 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 90 72 95 / 30 40 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 89 71 94 / 40 40 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 91 71 96 / 60 50 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 71 86 69 91 / 30 40 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 90 74 96 / 70 80 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 88 69 93 / 30 40 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 90 71 95 / 60 60 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 90 71 96 / 50 50 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 89 72 93 / 40 50 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 91 74 95 / 60 60 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 76 92 75 96 / 60 60 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday morning for Atascosa-Bandera- Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Edwards- Fayette-Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall- Kerr-Kinney-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...Magnussen LONG TERM...Magnussen AVIATION...62