380
FXUS64 KEWX 251120
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The upper level ridge is forecast to center northwest of the area,
with the southeast periphery of the ridge still maintaining an
influence over most of the area today. With the exception of a 10-
20% chance of stray to isolated tropical showers across portions of
Lavaca and DeWitt counties this afternoon, the area is forecast to
remain dry, warm, and humid today. We saw a few locations east of I-
35 briefly reach heat advisory criteria late yesterday, and with
temperatures at or slightly warmer today we are forecasting a larger
area of peak heat index values of 105-110 degrees along and east of
the I-35 and I-37 corridors. We have issued a Heat Advisory for this
area today and another advisory on Wednesday could be required.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The long term forecast will continue to revolve around the influence
of a 500mb Subtropical Ridge in place over the southwestern and
south-central CONUS. Hot and dry weather is expected area-wide
Thursday as temperatures soar into the mid to upper 90s. Heat
indices will likely climb into Heat Advisory territory for the
Coastal Plains, and perhaps as far west as the I-35 Corridor. A
similar setup can be expected on Friday, however, 500mb heights
weaken just a bit, opening the door for some seabreeze activity over
the Coastal Plains by late afternoon. Temperatures will remain in
the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 108-112 range over the
Coastal Plains and portions of the I-35 Corridor. This daily chance
at a shower or storm will continue through the weekend into early
next week as weak easterly flow remains in place on the southern
periphery of the Subtropical Ridge. Expect typical Summer heat
through early next week with highs in the 90s and heat indices in
the 105-110 range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Stratus formed overnight across portions of the Hill Country and
along the I-35 corridor and is producing a mix of MVFR to IFR
ceilings. The stratus may briefly expand to along the Rio Grande
before scattering out 15Z-17Z. VFR conditions are expected this
afternoon. Another round of stratus producing MVFR to IFR ceilings is
forecast late tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  79  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  77  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            96  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  81 102  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  77  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  76  96  75 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  77  94  77 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  79  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  79  98  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gonzales-
Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...76