Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
401 FXUS64 KEWX 141749 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .Key Messages - Flood Watch extended until 9 PM for the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Travis/Williamson Counties - A quick additional inch or two of rainfall possible within the watch area with isolated higher totals of 3 to 5 inches. May see additional river rises possible. - Drier regime mid to late week with slightly higher temperatures && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The latest observational, satellite, and radar trends indicate two MCVs nearby. One is located over Mexico hugging the Rio Grande while another is west of the Waco area. The MCV closer to Waco will be expected to move farther away and becomes less of an influence to our region today. However, the other MCV along the Rio Grande is now indicated by the latest CAMs to gradually lift northwards toward the Southern Edwards Plateau and Sonora region. Expect for the greatest rain and storm activity to remain most focused across our western areas during the overnight into early this morning with the MCV. However, recent runs of the short term CAM guidance also indicates that the MCV likely will help to rejuvenate additional rain and storm activity, especially during the peak daytime heating from late morning through early evening across the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau. While the 00Z HRRR run was the most aggressive and concerning with this solution, it is not alone on this idea. Locally heavy rainfall could be possible where a quick couple of inches may be possible in a short period of time and this would extend and exacerbate any flooding concerns over already saturated areas. With these concerns, we`ll elect to extend the Flood Watch until 9 pm tonight for the most saturated and recently flooded portions of the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and across Travis/Williamson counties. Where rain has been a bit more sparse farther south along I-35, we`ll drop a few counties from the watch, including Bexar County. Activity could extend into tonight before guidance shows a fading signal for activity from the overnight into Tuesday morning. Enough moisture lingers into Tuesday afternoon where isolated to widely scattered showers and storms may develop across the area with the help from daytime heating. Guidance is much less active on Tuesday and shows activity remaining diurnal and ending entering Tuesday night. The daytime highs remain slightly below average from the upper 80s into the mid 90s under partly clear to overcast conditions while overnight lows remain warm and humid in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A drier weather pattern establishes mid to late next week with the influence of ridging nudging westward into the area from the Gulf waters. Most areas should remain rain free outside from perhaps a stray to isolated shower or storm cell with the onshore flow and/or sea breeze. Best chance of this would be Thursday in the coastal plains. With the decrease in overall cloud cover and slightly stronger 500 mb heights, expect for a slight uptick in the daytime highs through the second half of the week and into the weekend. Right now, rain chances remain out of the forecast, but we`ll also monitor for the possible development of a tropical disturbance or inverted trough following behind in the wake of the upper level ridging that nudges to our area. This feature may slowly advance westward along/parallel to the northern Gulf coast towards and through the weekend. We continue to monitor to see if this feature gains additional model support within the coming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The main concern through the forecast period is the current MCV making its way across South-Central Texas, especially across the Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country. Currently the MCV has shown signs of weakening and likely not making its way to the I-35 TAF terminals. The greatest probability for flight impacts continues to be for KDRT. There are chances that some redevelopment could occur across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) later today, primarily during the afternoon. Confidence on placement and timing, however, is low. Nonetheless have added PROB30s to account for this possibility with VCSHs added for this evening into the overnight hours for all TAF sites. MVFR and possibly IFR flight conditions make a return overnight into late Tuesday morning with VFR conditions returning Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 94 75 96 / 30 20 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 94 75 95 / 20 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 95 74 96 / 20 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 91 73 92 / 40 20 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 93 77 96 / 30 30 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 93 74 94 / 30 20 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 92 75 95 / 30 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 95 74 96 / 20 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 94 77 96 / 30 20 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 97 77 98 / 20 20 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Blanco-Burnet- Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...05 Aviation...CJM