Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
398 FXUS64 KEWX 091041 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 541 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low humidity, cooler mornings, and warm afternoons Friday through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Drier air has pushed into much of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. A pool of higher moisture will remain across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande today. The HREF is indicating isolated shower development this afternoon across this region. Expanding high pressure to the northeast allows even drier air to backdoor into the region on Friday, with the moisture pool across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande being pushed southwest into Mexico. Precipitable water values of only 0.8-1.1 inches are indicated Friday afternoon. Mostly clear and dry conditions are expected on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Ridging aloft will remain over the region through the weekend. In the lower levels, dry air remains in place Saturday. This will lead to a cooler morning Saturday, with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s, and warm conditions in the afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Southerly low level flow resumes Sunday, and low level moisture is forecast to gradually increase Sunday into Monday. The ridge aloft strengthens Sunday through Wednesday, although there is some uncertainty on whether the ridge centers just east or over the region. By Tuesday the LREF Grand Ensemble is indicating H5 heights at the 99th percentile over the region. We have raised high temperatures slightly above the NBM Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 VFR flight conditions will continue at the TAF sites during the period with a mix of few to sct low and mid-level clouds through at the afternoon and early evening hours. Skies then look to clear out tonight into early Friday. There may be a few spotty showers during the afternoon for locations along the Rio Grande. There still is not enough confidence for us to insert VCSH or SHRA within the DRT TAF. Elsewhere, the conditions remain rain free. Expect light to moderate northeasterly breezes at the I-35 terminals (AUS/SAT/SSF) with the greatest speeds from the mid- morning through the afternoon. KDRT will be slightly lighter speeds and out of the east-southeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Despite spotty showers the past couple of days, the lack of significant rainfall the past month for most locations has led to flash drought conditions. Dry conditions continuing over the next week, along with low afternoon humidity, especially Friday and Saturday, will continue to promote the drying of fuels across the region. Despite relatively weaker winds, elevated fire weather conditions are possible the next several days, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor where fuels are more drought stressed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 94 67 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 65 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 66 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 64 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 70 92 68 / 20 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 92 63 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 92 67 92 61 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 65 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 64 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 93 69 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 94 70 94 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...76 LONG TERM....76 AVIATION...62