916
FXUS64 KEWX 092329
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
629 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Temperatures to remain near to just above normal through the
  next week.

- A low chance for some afternoon showers over the Coastal Plains
  and I-35 Corridor Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The subtropical ridge is centered over the Four Corners area this
afternoon. There is weak anticyclonic flow over Texas. The low
level flow continues to be from the southeast to south across
South-Central Texas. The airmass across our CWA has not changed
significantly over the last 24 hours and is hot and moist. There
is a trough of low pressure over the western Gulf that is
generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. The upper pattern
will begin a gradual change during the short term. There will be
an initial weakening of the ridge tonight and Monday associated
with the trough over the Gulf. Any convection today will have
ended by the start of this period. Leaving another seasonably warm
night. As the Gulf trough moves over the coast, we should see
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains and
I-35 Corridor during the afternoon. High temperatures will be
about the same as today. Tomorrow night will be nearly the same as
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The subtropical ridge will continue its slow transition to the
east eventually settling over the northern Gulf coast. This will
lead to stronger subsidence and less convection in the long term.
It will also likely produce temperatures a few degrees higher in
the middle of the week. The NBM has been consistently forecasting
higher dewpoints over the Coastal Plains in the long term and if
this verifies it will mean Heat Advisory heat indices. However,
the trend has been for the dewpoint forecast to come in lower as
it moves into the short term. We`ll have to see if this continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Opted to include VCTS at AUS through 02Z. An amendment may be
needed if storms dissipate quicker, but lightning is a threat over
the next 2 hours. After 02Z, any showers or storms should be out
of the picture, followed by the development of MVFR stratus after
09Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF. Winds remain southeasterly at 5-8 kts
overnight. VFR ceilings return by 15-16Z along with breezy
southeasterly flow at 10-15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  96  77  98 /   0  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  96  77  99 /   0  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  96  76  98 /  10  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  95  75  96 /  10  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  98  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  95  76  97 /  10  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  95  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  96  76  99 /  10  20   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  94  77  97 /   0  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  96  77  98 /  10  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  77 100 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...MMM