143
FXUS64 KEWX 011834
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1234 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Warm and humid through Monday with low clouds and at least some
  patchy fog each morning.

- Cold front passage overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning with
  a line of rain and storms; a few strong to severe storms are
  possible.

- A drier airmass arrives mid to late next week behind front with
  cooler mornings and mild, but pleasant afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1229 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The latest GOES East Water Vapor imagery showers an upper level low
centered over western Nevada, with broad southwesterly flow and
ample mid-level moisture out ahead of it. This will be our next
weather maker, sending a cold front through the region late Monday
night through Tuesday morning. Until then, quiet weather along with
shortwave ridging will result in warm and dry weather both today and
tomorrow. Temperatures should warm into the lower to middle 80s for
most locations, with the exception being over the Southern Edwards
Plateau and northern Rio Grande Plains where persistent low level
clouds and easterly flow will keep temperatures in the mid to upper
70s today.

For tonight, continued east to southeasterly low level flow will
result in mild and somewhat humid weather for early November.
The NBM has been struggling with this warmer airmass, so low temps
were bumped up yet again tonight and tomorrow night to account for
the warmer consensus. Monday will start in the mid to upper 60s with
a few spots possibly not dipping below 70 degrees. More widespread
low clouds are expected Monday morning as low level moisture pools
over the region ahead of the approaching cold front slated to arrive
early Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 80s for
most areas Monday outside of highs in the mid to upper 70s over the
Southern Edwards Plateau and Western Hill Country. Monday night will
once again feature muggy and mild conditions, but this will be the
last warm night as cooler and drier air arrives behind a cold front
moving in at the start of the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1229 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The cold front mentioned above arrives Tuesday morning and should
exit the region by early Tuesday afternoon. Since this front will
arrive before peak heating, instability will be lacking, however,
there is enough deep layer shear to warrant a Marginal Risk (Level 1
of 5) along and west of the I-35 Corridor Monday night into Tuesday
morning. The primary hazards would be large hail and damaging wind.
Storms should move through quick enough to limit any sort of
flooding risk. Winds will ramp up a bit behind the front, but won`t
be nearly as strong as our front a couple weeks ago. Drier air will
move in behind this front, setting the stage for a beautiful second
half of the week with cool, crisp mornings in the 40s and 50s and
afternoons in the 70s. Another front may approach by the end of the
week, but for now, this front looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

MVFR ceilings linger in the west impacting KDRT for another couple
of hours before VFR conditions return to all of South Central Texas
through tonight. An east to southeast wind generally remains at or
below 10 mph through tonight, though some gusts up 20 knots are
expected along the Rio Grande. Wind increases over higher elevations
during the overnight hours then increases over a majority of the
area Monday morning. Ceilings drop to MVFR/IFR levels closer to
sunrise Monday with some areas of fog as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  84  68  76 /   0   0  70  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  85  67  77 /   0   0  70  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  84  67  78 /   0   0  50  70
Burnet Muni Airport            66  82  65  72 /   0   0  70  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  84  66  75 /   0   0  50   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  84  66  75 /   0   0  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             67  84  67  78 /   0   0  70  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  85  67  78 /   0   0  60  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  86  68  79 /   0   0  40  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  82  68  77 /   0   0  50  70
Stinson Muni Airport           69  84  69  78 /   0   0  40  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...27