869
FXUS64 KEWX 011548
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1048 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect through Friday evening for most of
  South Central Texas.

- Some storms tonight and Thursday may also be strong to severe.

- Low to medium rain chances linger through the weekend then
  decrease heading into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The heavy rain has ended out west, and models do not regenerate
anything later today. We have cancelled the Flood Watch for Val
Verde, Edwards, Real, Kinney, and Maverick Counties. The rest of
the watch remains in effect. Showers and thunderstorms are
starting to move into the I-35 Corridor, and high resolution
models show this continuing into the evening. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1-4 inches with isolated amounts to 6 inches are
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The latest GOES 19 Water Vapor imagery shows the upper low centered
over New Mexico this evening and slowly marching eastward. Out ahead
of it, southwesterly flow and a 40-60 kt southwesterly jet streak
will slide eastward. In combination with highly anomalous PWATs in
the 2-2.4" range and strong southeasterly low-level flow, showers
and storms will develop this evening, and slowly march eastward,
capable of intense rainfall rates. For tonight there is a level 2 of
4 (Slight) risk for flooding from the I-35 Corridor and westward,
and a level 3 of 4 (Moderate) risk for the western Hill Country,
Edwards Plateau, and northern Rio Grande Plains. HREF members and
REFS members show storms developing out west and marching east
through this morning, with torrential rainfall rates up to 2+" per
hour. For what it`s worth, some high res members of the WoFS and of
the HRRR show storms developing over the San Antonio metro ahead of
the primary line and frontal boundary.

Today, WPC places a Level 2 to 3 of 4 risk over much of south
central Texas, with a Level 3 of 4 (Moderate) risk in place for the
Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, southern Rio Grande Plains, and eastern
parts of the Edwards Plateau. Storms are likely to be ongoing
Thursday morning as a Pacific front slides south and east with time
during the day. Convection may redevelop in the afternoon and
evening hours today behind the initial line. It`s dependent on
instability behind the boundary and how far south and east it gets.
If the front stalls like the GFS and NAM/NAM 3km indicate,
redevelopment would occur along the I-35 Corridor Thursday night. We
could see widespread rainfall amounts of 1-4" with local amounts up
to 6-8" through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the weekend, some mid-level energy will remain in place which
may spark additional showers and storms each day, but the intensity
of storms shouldn`t be quite as high as it will be today and Friday.
The mid to upper level trough will get stuck over southwest Texas,
resulting in those continued rain and storm chances. There may be
some lingering showers Monday morning, but by the afternoon, things
look dry across much of south central Texas. Essentially Monday
through Wednesday of next week looks dry as weak zonal flow settles
in over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are moving across the region north of
our airports. The western end of the area is approaching DRT, and
they will see convection over the next hour or two. Once these
storms move away, they should remain rain free and VFR for the
rest of this period.

There are some light rain showers in the Austin and San Antonio
areas for another hour or so. Then the best timing for
thunderstorms in those areas will be late morning until early
afternoon. There will be high chances for rain showers through the
afternoon and lower chances during the evening. More showers will
develop overnight along with MVFR ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  72  82  71 /  90 100  90  90
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  71  82  70 /  90 100  90  90
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  71  82  69 /  90 100  90  80
Burnet Muni Airport            82  70  79  67 /  90  90  90  90
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  69  85  67 /  60  10  30  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  71  81  69 /  90 100  90  90
Hondo Muni Airport             84  69  80  68 /  90  80  70  90
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  70  82  69 /  90 100  90  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  72  85  71 /  90  90  80  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  73  81  71 /  90 100  90  80
Stinson Muni Airport           89  72  82  71 /  90 100  80  80

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ171>173-186>193-
203>208-218>221-223-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...05