Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
222 FXUS64 KEWX 130603 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1203 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm through next week. - Dry, then trending wetter middle to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Southerly lower level flow into a thermal ridge underneath an upper level ridge bring well above average temperatures through Friday. Increasing moisture will lead to low clouds and patchy fog, some dense, late night into morning. Heating allows for mixing with a dry airmass aloft to enable ample sunshine in the afternoon. A tight surface pressure gradient results in breezy winds with gusts up to 25 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 This weekend into early next week, the upper level ridge gradually moves off to the east with an upper level trough passing well to our north allowing for an increasingly moist southwesterly flow aloft. Well above average temperatures continue with highs near records Sunday through Tuesday as the lower level thermal ridge strengthens. Current records for the 16th through 18th are in the mid to upper 80s. Forcing from the low level jet, an upper level jet, and a weak Pacific front on deepening moisture result in slight POPs (10-25%) for showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday along and east of the I-35 corridor. For the middle to late part of next week, there remains uncertainty among the models and ensembles. The ongoing consensus shows an upper level trough and surface cold front moving over Texas. However, the strength and timing of the trough and cold front are in flux. This should result in higher POPs (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms. One scenario is a line of showers and thunderstorms with a marginal strong to severe potential. A slight "cooldown" is expected, though temperatures remain above average. Expect updates to the forecast through the next several days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 A shallow moisture return off the Gulf is anticipated to bring a mix of low stratus and fog development across the Coastal Plains, portions of the I-35 corridor, and southern and western Hill Country overnight and into Thursday morning. Initially patchy 06Z-09Z, coverage is expected to gradually increase 09Z-14Z. Some locations could experience IFR to LIFR conditions. The stratus and fog is forecast to mix out around 15-16Z with VFR conditions through the remainder of the day. E to S winds around or less than 5 KT overnight. A southerly wind around 10 KT with gusts to around 20 KT is forecast to develop after 17Z across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 83 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 80 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 83 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 61 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 84 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 83 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 85 61 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...76