640
FXUS64 KEWX 162328
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Elevated Heat Index values Today and Tuesday.

The mesoscale convective complex over south Texas has interrupted
onshore flow this afternoon and with hi-res models showing less in
the way of convection today, we have lowered rain chances for
portions of the coastal plains into the Highway 77 corridor for the
remainder of today. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with highs in
the lower 90s to near 100 degrees. Afternoon heat index values may
peak around 106 degrees today for locations mainly along and east of
the I-35 corridor and along the Rio Grande.

For Tuesday, we will keep the forecast dry across all of south
central Texas as the subtropical ridge axis begins to build in from
the west. Temperatures should inch upward a degree or two and this
may boost a few afternoon heat index values close to 108 degrees
along and east of I-35, as well as portions of the Rio Grande plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Dry weather is expected for Wednesday across south Central Texas.
Active weather stays across northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma
with the passage of an upper level trough system. The upper level
trough axis extends to central Texas and Hill Country. Can`t totally
rule out a shower or storm across the southern Edwards Plateau mid
to late afternoon during the heating of the day. Otherwise, mostly
sunny skies with highs in the low to upper 90s with up to 107
degrees along the Rio Grande.

Increased moisture arrives overnight with clouds developing across
the coastal plains, I-35 corridor, and northern Hill Country. The
upper level trough axis mentioned above is forecasted to push to the
southeast into east Texas by early Thursday morning while an
inverted upper level trough moves across the western Gulf waters and
the Deep South. This scenario could bring some shower and
thunderstorm activity across the coastal plains and I-35 corridor
areas. The NAM and GFS guidance are keeping the local area
relatively dry on Thursday with a wetter solution coming out of the
ECMWF solution. So to account to these solutions, went with low PoPs
(20 to 40 percent) mainly for Thursday afternoon. Highs are expected
to reach the lower to mid 90s over most locations and up to 103
degrees along the Rio Grande.

By Friday, a weak upper level pressure system sits across central
Texas while the inverted upper level trough remains over the Deep
South. This could result in a few showers and may be isolated
thunderstorms across the coastal plains and getting as close as the
I-35 corridor. It is going to be cooler on Friday with highs in the
90s areawide.

The upcoming weekend looks to be relatively quiet for the most part
with period of isolated shower activity and maybe a few
thunderstorms in the afternoon period with the interaction of
outflows and seabreeze. As far as the temperatures go, normal
climate values are expected with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s
for most places and upper 90s along the Rio Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions will continue at our TAF sites for the remainder of
the evening before MVFR CIGs redevelop starting around 07-08Z at
AUS/SAT/SSF and around 12Z at DRT. CIGs are expected to lift and
cloud cover should break after 16Z with VFR conditions prevailing at
all sites. Gusty southeast to south winds above 10 kt are forecast
to spread across the area after 16Z and should maintain similar
strength into Tuesday night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  97  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  96  76  95 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  96  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  95  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 103  79 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  95  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  96  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  77  92 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  97  76  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Tran