919
FXUS64 KEWX 251122
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
522 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues for the next few days with cooler air arriving
  Wednesday.

- Cool and dry for Thanksgiving Day.

- A wetter weather pattern may return Saturday and continue into next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Drier air is now spreading across South-Central Texas, whisking away
clouds and moisture for the next few days. Over the last 12 hours,
the precipitable water measured by the Del Rio upper-air balloon
fell from 1.42 inches (well above the 90th percentile) to
approximately 0.4 inches (below the 25th percentile). The rarefied
moisture and light winds will make for a much cooler morning. Lows
in the valleys of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country are
forecast to dip into the upper 40s. Elsewhere, lows will generally
range from the 50s over most of the region to around 60 over the
Coastal Plains. Evapotranspiration and low-level moisture sticking
around the Coastal Plains with light winds supports patchy overnight
and morning fog, dense in some spots, as temperatures fall to
saturation.

Winds aloft not far above the surface remain westerly, so warm air
is still present in the lower troposphere. This air should mix down
on a sunny Tuesday afternoon, leading to highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s.

A mass of cold air currently over the northern Rockies is expected
to spill south across the Central Plains Tuesday. As is typical,
flow aloft guides the core of this air east into the Central
Mississippi River Valley and Midwest, but its southern periphery
should make it to our area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Lows north and west of the Balcones Escarpment Wednesday morning are
expected to dip into the low to mid 40s with low 50s to the south
and along the Rio Grande. However, breezy winds associated with the
surging airmass will make those temperatures feel more chilly. Winds
are expected to peak during the morning hours on Wednesday, with
sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts possibly up to 35 mph
across much of South-Central Texas. Current modeled wind speeds are
below Wind Advisory criteria, but it will likely be a blustery
morning nonetheless. Those brisk winds should steadily lessen
Wednesday afternoon as the leading edge of the airmass drops farther
south. Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the 60s regionwide
under essentially cloudless skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Effective radiational cooling Thursday morning should make for a
cool start to Thanksgiving with forecast lows in the 30s and 40s.
Rural low-lying areas north of I-10 may experience a brief patchy
freeze. Thanksgiving Day is expected to be rather seasonable with
mostly clear skies and highs in the 60s.

Beginning Friday, the northerly winds responsible for bringing in
the cooler air shifts east as the subtropical jet makes its return
over the southwestern US ahead of amplifying troughing, restoring a
moistening southerly wind. Conditions may still be dry with
seasonable temperatures Friday, but more mild and muggy weather
could be in place by Saturday with rain chances on the rise. There
are significant uncertainties regarding the weather this weekend
into early next week. In general, a broad longwave trough should set
up over the western and central US downstream of a blocking ridge
over the North Pacific, placing the subtropical and southern branch
of the polar jet over the Southern Plains and supporting the
increase of moisture in our area. However, timing of rainfall and
temperature trends will be tied to the track and timing of
individual shortwave disturbances along the jets. Saturday looks to
be the favored timing of a first rainmaking disturbance, but there
may be several opportunities for rain so long as the longwave
pattern remains in place. As an example of the uncertainty, the GFS
has a shortwave along the subtropical jet Saturday while the ECMWF
pushes one along the southern polar jet, leading to a 30-degree
difference in temperatures between those two models for some spots
Sunday morning.

All in all, the main takeaway is that a period of variable weather
with multiple windows of opportunity for rain will likely kickoff
this weekend with recurring cloudiness. Temperatures will likely be
on the warmer side to start the weekend, but there is good
consensus that colder air will eventually return sometime early to
mid next week as the longwave pattern expands across CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Few clouds are expected through the period, but to the distant
east of AUS there could be some shallow but patchy dense fog
through around 14Z. Light drainage winds are occurring at the TAF
locations in an otherwise calm overnight wind environment. After
daybreak, a light NE breeze will pick up to around 6 knots along
I-35, while L/V winds continue at DRT. After 06Z tonight another
cold front arrives and brings gradually increasing winds that
could be sustained at around 15 knots by 15Z, and perhaps with
gusts as high as 25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A dry pattern is expected to continue through Thursday. Relative
humidity values are expected to fall below to 20-30 percent south of
Interstate 10 this afternoon, but winds remain light to near calm. A
cold front pushes south Wednesday morning with a breezy and cooler
post-frontal environment. North winds of 10-15 mph may overlap with
25-35 percent relative humidity south of Interstate 10 and produce
some locally elevated fire weather conditions, but cooler
temperatures and improved soil moisture should mitigate impacts.
Moisture returns Friday and over the weekend, with an upper level
disturbance bringing a low chance of wetting rains over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79  49  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  79  47  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  49  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  45  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  52  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  45  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             82  49  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  49  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   79  50  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  51  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           83  53  69  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...18