063
FXUS64 KEWX 221759
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Low to medium chances for isolated showers and storms continues for
  today.

- Unseasonable hot conditions continue with some reprieve in the
  humidity levels by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Currently a weak stationary frontal boundary is located just north
of our area stretching from just north of Waco westward to north of
Fort Stockton TX. We could see this front sag further southward
through the day today before eventually just washing out. At the
same time a mid level ridge is trying to strengthen overtop of
Central TX however its still fairly weak so we could see another
round of isolated showers and storms erupt near this boundary. More
activity is possible across the Hill Country into the I-35 Corridor
this afternoon into this evening much like what we saw with
yesterdays activity. We shouldn`t see much in the way of severe
weather once again as shear remains very low. DCAPE values could get
above 1000 J/kg which would continue to support strong gusty winds
in any of the stronger storms that develop. By Wednesday chances for
showers and storms should be lower as the ridge begins to suppress
instability across the area.

Regarding temperatures we should see another unseasonably hot day for
south central TX with almost everyone getting into the mid to upper
90s with perhaps a few triple digit readings which remains well
above normal for this time of year. It will however remain very
humid with PWATS currently in the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range which is
well above normal for this time of year. When adding in the humidity
with the heat we will expect to see another day of heat indices in
the 101 to 107 degree range which should keep us just shy of heat
advisory criteria. Wednesday we should see very similar highs with
just a tad bit less humidity as the ridge of high pressure starts to
strengthen. Similarly heat indices should also be slightly lower and
more in the 100-105 degree range. Nights however will continue to
remain very warm for this time of year, in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Global models and ensemble guidance suggest that the mid level ridge
continues to strengthen during the long term thus reducing our
chances for rain and storms. It eventually pushes off to the east
across the TX/LA border by the end of the week before meandering
back west southwestward over our area over the weekend. The result
is most areas should remain dry with just very spotty isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the Coastal Plains and again across
the Rio Grande as they remain on the periphery of the ridge. The
good news is that with the ridge being close by it should drop our
humidity values beginning Thursday as onshore flow from the Gulf
will be reduced. While it will remain unseasonably hot across the
area, heat indices will only likely be 1 to 3 degrees above the
actual air temperatures giving us some reprieve from the oppressive
heat and humidity we have experienced for most of this month.
Unfortunately rain chances continue to look abysmal for most of the
area as long as the ridge remains parked nearby. There is some hope
in the long term as long range models are starting to indicate a
pattern shift thus favoring our area for a more active weather
pattern as we end September and head into October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Mainly isolated convection is expected this afternoon across a good
portion of south central Texas. With mainly isolated coverage of
showers and storms expected, we will not mention in the current
forecast. Otherwise, low cloud development looks to occur a little
later, with less coverage compared to what was observed today. We
did opt to include a brief TEMPO group for MVFR cigs at KSAT, KSSF
and KDRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  99  76  99 /  30  20  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  99  76  99 /  30  10  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  97  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  94  73  94 /  30  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  97  75  97 /  20   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  97  75  97 /  30  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  95  74  95 /  30   0  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  99  74  98 /  20  10  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  99  76  99 /  20  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  95  77  95 /  30  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  97  76  96 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...Platt