309
FXUS64 KEWX 141855
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
155 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Key Message:

- Isolated to scattered convection this afternoon/early evening and
again on Sunday.

Convection ongoing across the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor
will continue and gradually spread westward. We expect to see new
convective development to the west of where storms are ongoing as a
westward moving outflow boundary helps to initiate additional
showers and storms. This includes the I-35 corridor into portions of
the Hill Country. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds and frequent
lightning strikes. Some minor flooding may also develop especially
over the coastal plains of Karnes, DeWitt and Lavaca counties where
some notable rainfall totals have occurred as of late. We should see
a gradual decrease in the coverage of showers and storm through the
early evening hours as daytime heating ends.

On Sunday, we expect to see a similar weather pattern develop with
convection initially developing over the coastal plains, then
gradually spreading westward into the I-35 corridor, Hill Country
and possibly as far west as portions of the southern Edwards
Plateau. Temperatures on Sunday will range from near 100 degrees
along the Rio Grande to the lower 90s in the Hill Country. Some
highs may stay down in the lower 90s over the coastal plains if
precipitation and cloud cover develop as expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions expected through next week.

- Ridging remains west of the area, allowing periodic rain and storm
  chances to move in behind north to northwesterly flow aloft.

Mid-level ridging will remain close enough influence our sensible
weather through the start of the upcoming week. Temperatures will
warm into the mid to upper 90s outside of the Rio Grande Plains
where highs will top out in the 100-105 range through Wednesday.
With our recent rains adding copious amounts of moisture to the
soil, evapotranspiration will result in sticky/humid conditions this
week, particularly in the mornings. Afternoons should see enough
mixing out that heat indices remain in check.

By mid to late week, a slightly more active pattern looks to return
as both GFS/ECMWF operational and ensembles indicate northerly to
northeasterly flow aloft bringing the storm track back into South
Central Texas. The seabreeze should also be a bit more active by
late week as well, resulting in a return to rain and storm chances
each day Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The main update this forecast cycle was to add a TEMPO group for
TSRA for the I-35 sites, mainly between 20-24Z. Daytime heating and a
westward propagating outflow boundary should be enough to yield
isolated to scattered coverage of storms along and east of I-35 this
afternoon. Otherwise, look for a return of low clouds and MVFR cigs
for all TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  94  75  94 /  20  30  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  94  75  94 /  20  30  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  92  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  92  73  93 /  20  30  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  99  78 100 /   0  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  94  74  93 /  20  30  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             76  94  75  94 /  20  20  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  94  75  93 /  20  30  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  90  75  90 /  20  50  10  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  94  75  94 /  20  30  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           78  94  76  95 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Platt