Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
312 FXUS64 KEWX 210619 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1219 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch continues in effect for parts of the Rio Grande, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country through 6 AM Friday due to the potential for a new round of heavy rain and localized flooding as a Pacific front moves across South Central Texas overnight. - Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms also possible overnight as a couple of surface troughs linger across the local areas and ahead of the Pacific front - Another round of heavy rain is possible Sunday evening into Monday evening. Medium range and ensemble models suggest the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor to be impacted the most. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 We have an interesting setup late tonight/early Friday morning across South Central Texas with a couple of surface troughs lingering across the local area in addition to the passage of a Pacific front overnight. There is plenty of instability and shear for thunderstorms to develop into strong to severe intensity with all severe hazard types (large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes) possible. In addition, elevated precipitable water values in the range of 1.6 and 1.7 inches, could aid storms to produce heavy downpours, resulting in localized flooding. Once the Pacific front pushes across Hill Country Friday morning, dry conditions are forecast to develop and spread from northwest to southeast throughout the day. The Coastal Plains likely to keep some shower/storm activity during the mid to late afternoon period as the front pushes into the middle Texas coast. Dry conditions persist for most of Saturday with any shower or storm activity staying across the Coastal Plains and then late into the evening across portions of the Rio Grande. Cooler daytime temperatures are forecast across the local area Friday through the weekend in the wake of the front with highs mainly in the 70s through lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Another round of heavy rain is possible Sunday evening through Monday evening as an upper level storm system moves across the Southern Plains in combination with the passage of a Pacific front. Increased moisture is forecast to be in place for periods of heavy rain ahead and along the boundary. Medium range models favored portions of the Rio Grande, Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor including the Austin and San Antonio metro areas. Once the front moves out of the local area Monday evening, a dry weather pattern takes control for the rest of the week. The best chances for rain and at that we are talking slight chances, stay over the Coastal Plains for the extended period. More seasonal temperatures await next week with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 MVFR and IFR conditions are forecast for the KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF terminals at least through 18z/19z time frame. Showers and storms are forecast to impact the I-35 airports around 11z and 13z window as a Pacific front pushes across the area. Some of the storms could be strong at times while producing heavy rain, Gusty winds and reduced visibility. VFR cigs return across the I-35 terminals in the afternoon period. Winds stay from the east and southeast overnight for the most part and shift to the west and northwest mid to late morning in the wake of the boundary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 80 58 75 57 / 70 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 80 58 76 57 / 70 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 81 60 78 58 / 50 10 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 77 53 72 54 / 50 0 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 56 76 63 / 0 0 20 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 79 54 74 55 / 60 10 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 80 61 78 60 / 30 10 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 82 60 78 57 / 60 10 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 61 78 57 / 60 20 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 80 63 77 62 / 50 10 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 82 65 79 63 / 30 10 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ171>173- 183>190-192. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...62