672
FXUS64 KEWX 311053
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
553 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Hot and dry weather continues today and early Saturday.

- A weak front brings a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
Saturday.

- Hot and dry weather persists into early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The center of the strong subtropical ridge keeping the local weather
hot and dry is starting to move slightly west towards Arizona.
Southerly low to mid level winds will still prevail over South
Central Texas today, so it should nonetheless stay seasonably hot
and dry. Highs should again reach the upper 90s to low 100s for most
with heat indices in the 100 to 107 range for the low lying plains
and along the I-35 corridor. These conditions are below advisory
criteria, but can still pose health risks without adequate heating
and cooling.

As the ridge moves a little more west, the flow aloft will turn more
northerly. This will allow a weak front to approach South Central
Texas on Saturday. Depending on the timing of the front, a shift
towards pre-frontal westerlies could cause temperatures to spike
before the front arrives. The intersection of higher moisture along
the front and these warmer temperatures could result in higher heat
indices during the late-morning to early afternoon Saturday. Most
models bring the weak front over the area Saturday afternoon. A low
to medium chance (20 to 40 percent) of rain accompanies the front,
mainly in the form of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The best chances for rain are favored Saturday
afternoon and evening, subject to when the front arrives. Elevated
moisture immediately along the front (characterized by a narrow band
of 1.8 to 2.0 inch PWATs) could support a brief period of higher
rain rates, though the progressive nature of the front should keep
storms moving steadily. Rain chances linger through Saturday night,
by which time the front should be exiting our area to the south.
Rain amounts in the latest guidance, considering the narrow stretch
of favorable conditions, have generally clustered around rain
amounts mostly ranging from a few hundredths to a quarter inch.
Given the higher PWATs, a few isolated pockets of amounts above 2
inches are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

After Saturday`s front passes, notably drier continental air will
spread across South Central Texas. While temperatures are not
expected to change much in the wake of the front, the decrease in
moisture Sunday and potentially Monday will help provide a
temporarily drier heat. This is not expected to last for very long
as subtropical ridge is forecast to re-extend over our area,
reinstituting southerly flow and allowing higher dew points to
gradually return. By about midweek, peak afternoon heat indices may
once again exceed 105F for the I-35 corridor and low lying plains.
Continue to practice heat safety and stay cool and hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The forecast remains on track with MVFR ceilings through 14-15Z
followed by VFR through the remainder of the period. Winds will
remain on the breezier side with southeasterly flow at 5-15 kts
and occasional gusts this afternoon and evening of 20+ kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              99  77  98  77 /   0   0  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  77  99  77 /   0   0  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  76  99  77 /   0   0  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            98  75  97  73 /   0   0  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  79 100  77 /   0   0  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport       100  77  98  75 /   0   0  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             99  75  98  76 /   0   0  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  76  99  77 /   0   0  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional  100  76  98  77 /   0   0  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  77  99  79 /   0   0  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport          100  78 100  80 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...MMM