Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
261 FXUS64 KEWX 011944 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .UPDATE... Flash flood watch across Dimmit, Kinney, Maverick, and Zavala counties has been cancelled as the risk for heavy rain and flooding has diminished across these counties. Some isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible featuring occasional downpours across the region. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch remains in effect for Kinney, Maverick, Dimmit, and Zavala Counties through 7pm this evening. - Warm and dry weather returns Tuesday through Friday. - Rain chances may return this weekend, with some potential for locally heavy rain, but the forecast remains uncertain at this distance. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... A weak stalled out frontal boundary remains draped across the southern half of South Central Texas. Temperatures will remain cooler than seasonal normals today with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lower 90s. Showers and storms remain possible through the afternoon and early this evening as a remnant weak low to mid-level circulation remains in place over the Edwards Plateau and southern Rio Grande Plains. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding with the Flood Watch in place for southwestern zones. Elsewhere, only spotty coverage is expected before sunset followed by a drying trend beyond 00Z for all locations outside of the southern 1/4 of the CWA. Weak northerly flow will continue Tuesday as the front fades and moves south of the region. Warm and dry weather with highs back in the lower to middle 90s will return Tuesday with afternoon mid sun and clouds. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... Wednesday through Friday, the area will be within light northwest flow, with dry weather expected. Cooler mornings can also be expected despite hot and dry afternoons. PWATs will fall to between 1.00-1.25" and allow some mornings in the upper 60s over the Hill Country and lower 70s elsewhere Wednesday through Friday. By Saturday, the humidity will start to return as a potential tropical system develops over the Eastern Pacific and surface moisture returns with southeasterly surface flow Saturday through Monday. PWATs will also see a marked increase, in the 1.50-2.00" range Saturday through Monday. Saturday and beyond, there has been notable lack of run-to-run continuity amongst global guidance with regard to how an EPAC system may work into the mid-level flow. If it does indeed move inland and remnant mid-level moisture remains intact by the time it makes it to Texas, we could see some heavy rain threat materialize this upcoming weekend, particularly Sunday. Better model agreement will be needed to determine any heavy precip concerns next weekend. && .AVIATION (20Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... VFR flight conditions generally prevail through the period with sct to bkn cloud coverage. The majority of the shower activity advanced into the Rio Grande Plains and is moving away from the TAF sites. However, a stray to isolated shower will still be possible but confidence is low and any impacts are not expected to be enough for inclusion within this TAF package. Brief MVFR ceilings could linger early in the period at KDRT and may be possible overnight for the San Antonio terminals if enough low clouds develop. Winds remain light with directions either variable or out of the north to northeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 95 73 97 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 94 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 96 71 98 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 69 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 97 74 98 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 92 70 95 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 71 95 70 98 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 95 70 98 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 93 71 95 / 10 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 95 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 96 74 99 / 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM...17/MMM AVIATION...62