Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
802 FXUS64 KEWX 241831 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1231 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A broken line of showers and thunderstorms which some of the storms could be strong to marginally severe to affect parts of the local area this afternoon (Best chances for severe storms to our east). - Dry and cool weather returns and stays for few days in the wake of a cold front moving across South Central Texas this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1222 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 There is a surface trough/convergence zone between a warm front to the northeast of the Hill Country and a cold front moving across the Southern Edwards Plateau area as of 12 PM this afternoon. Also, a mid level trough axis is moving across the Hill Country while an upper level trough axis is moving across the Trans-Pecos area. The upper level feature is forecast to advance to the east as the day progresses ending up helping instability across parts of the Hill Country and areas along the I-35 Corridor. This translates to a marginal potential for strong to severe storms across those mentioned locations. All severe hazards (large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado) are possible with any severe storm that develops mid to late afternoon. However, the best chances and probabilities for severe weather looking to be to our east where a Tornado Watch is in effect through 7 PM this evening. Clearing is forecast to take place from west to east throughout the afternoon and evening with rain chances coming to an end and some lingering clouds staying across the Coastal Plains overnight. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the mid to upper 40s across the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Tuesday`s weather looks dry and cool under sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1222 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 The cool and dry weather continues for the rest of the week for the most part. There is a slight chance for showers late Friday night into Saturday with the help of a strong low level jet spreading increased moisture from the Gulf into the Coastal Plains and along the I-35 Corridor. Models are not in good agreement as far as the next frontal boundary to affect the local area with ECMWF pushing a cold front while the GFS solution shows a cold front early next week. So for now, enjoy the dry and cool days and cooler mornings through the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A cold front will slide through the region this afternoon, shifting winds from SSW to WNW and laterly NW overnight. Despite the passage, winds shouldn`t increase drastically with this front, and in fact, they are more likely to drop below 10 kts behind the front. -SHRA and MVFR ceilings are expected through 21-23Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF, but have kept mention of VCTS at AUS through 23Z. VFR ceilings and much quieter weather on the aviation side of things is anticipated after 00Z tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 54 80 50 65 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 51 79 49 64 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 53 81 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 51 75 46 60 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 53 80 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 50 76 46 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 50 83 51 69 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 51 81 49 66 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 56 80 50 66 / 40 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 55 82 53 67 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 56 83 55 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...MMM