485
FXUS64 KEWX 220516
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Heat Advisory in effect for the northern Hill Country,
  I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains through Sunday.

- Brief and isolated showers and storms possible over Central
  Texas this afternoon.

- August heat wave continues with no significant rain or heat
  relief in sight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The forecast has long called for a hot weekend and it that won`t
be changing as upper level ridging remains steady over the
southern Rockies and southern Plains. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect through the weekend for the northern Hill Country, I-35
corridor, and Coastal Plains. For these areas, high temperatures
both Saturday and Sunday are expected to rise into the 102F to
105F range with heat indices up to about 109F. These conditions
can become dangerous if adequate steps are not taken to stay cool
and hydrated. Overnight temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s
within the advisory areas, providing meager relief.

While the atmospheric profile looks relatively dry with a patch
of modest precipitable water extending from West Texas into the
Central Gulf, the weakly anticyclonic flow around the nearby upper
level ridge will help push a zone of slightly higher moisture
straddling a baroclinic zone aloft near our region today. The
slight rise in moisture results in convective temperatures in the
latest HREF to be subtly lower this afternoon compared to Friday,
ranging generally between 100-103F. This implies daytime heating
alone may be sufficient to spark a few isolated and gusty shower
or even a brief thunderstorm this afternoon. Rain chances remain
on the low side (15 to 20 percent) and focused over the Hill
Country to Austin metro area, but is depicted in some of the hi-
res models. Any shower would likely be brief, but the accompanying
gustiness and rain could bring temporary respite from the heat.
The baroclinic support is lower for Sunday, so chances look lower
for this type of isolated shower activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The heat wave won`t be going away anytime soon. Without any
notable amplification of the jet stream to its north, the strong
ridge keeping our hot airmass in place doesn`t have any travel
plans this upcoming week. High temperatures will continue to be
near or over 100F each day, with only slight fluctuations day to
day. Regardless of whether the scales tip towards additional Heat
Advisory extensions/issuances or not, the bottom line is that the
summer heat continues.

The forecast remains dry as subsidence from the ridge prevents
shower formation, though there could be some potential for a few
showers to sneak into the region Friday as the tail end of a
decaying front brushes the area. Otherwise, the current weather
pattern offers slim pickings for rain through the end of August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR flight conditions prevail through the period. Few patchy low
clouds are possible this morning and again Sunday morning but
flight impacts at the area terminals are not anticipated. There
will be some high clouds arriving later today and could continue
to pass through the region at times into Sunday. This afternoon
features a slight chance for shower or storm across northern
portions of the region. KAUS could possibly see something
approach but confidence remains too low to insert any mention in
the TAFs at this time. Winds generally remain around 10 kt or
less through the period, with the highest speeds just after
sunset with the sea breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             105  80 104  79 /  20  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 104  79 103  78 /  20  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    102  77 103  76 /  10   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport           102  77 102  76 /  20  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  78 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport       103  80 103  79 /  20  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport            101  75 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       103  77 102  76 /  10  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional  103  78 103  77 /  20  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport      102  78 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          103  77 103  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ171>173-191>194-
205>209-220>225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...62