Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
315 FXUS64 KEWX 160556 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1256 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm afternoons with seasonably cool nights through next week. - Slight chances of rain forecast mainly Coastal Plains and the US Highway 77 corridor, at times. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Unfortunately, mid-level ridging remains in control over the southeastern CONUS early this morning. Meanwhile, a deepening trough over Utah continues to slowly push east. This should act to weaken and push the ridge to our south and east on Thursday, opening the door for a potential frontal boundary on Friday. Low level moisture should begin to increase ahead of this approaching trough and attendant cold front, as southeasterly surface flow ramps up. After a cool start on Thursday, expect yet another warm afternoon (Hooray...), with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Things will remain dry on Thursday, but by Friday, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Coastal Plains as the aforementioned trough begins to slide to the east over west Texas. There remains uncertainty with regard to the evolution of this trough, and more can be found on this in the long term period && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Late Friday into Saturday, the mid level trough will get stretched and slide south and east through the state of Texas. Medium range guidance remains mixed on how this trough will evolve through the weekend. The GFS had for awhile been advertising a potent cut off low developing on the tail end of this trough and swinging through our area, but now the ECMWF is doing something similar. Once hi-res guidance can hone in on this feature, we will likely continue with uncertainty in its evolution. In any matter, we probably won`t see much precip with this trough as it won`t have significant moisture to work with. Beyond Sunday, the mid to upper level pattern appears to finally become a bit more progressive as a series of troughs impact the west coast. Hopefully this will mean a more active pattern with increased rain chances and additional cold fronts towards the middle to end of October. We all know that this unending dry spell has continued to negatively impact area streamflow and water storage and that most people have probably had enough of this seemingly unending warmth. (This forecaster included). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Lower level moisture profiles show MVFR CIGs at the I-35 sites this morning and again overnight into Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR flying is expected through Friday. Light and VRBL winds early this morning will become S to SE winds 5 to 15 KTs with some higher gusts by midday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 89 66 91 72 / 0 0 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 64 91 71 / 0 0 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 63 91 69 / 0 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 85 64 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 90 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 63 90 70 / 0 0 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 89 63 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 63 91 69 / 0 0 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 64 89 70 / 0 0 30 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 66 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 90 67 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM....MMM AVIATION...04