855
FXUS64 KEWX 160658
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
158 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Low chances of rain east today

- Seasonable temperatures with elevated heat index values

A few very light showers are noted dropping south. However, they
should dissipate by sunrise. Subtropical ridging builds over our
area in the short term. Heating and the seabreeze should generate
isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains today
where an MCV is noted. A shower or thunderstorm or two may be able
to make it to the I-35 corridor by evening. Cannot rule out gusty
winds and heavy downpours. Otherwise, strengthening subsidence and
drying with the ridge will overcome any forcing to keep rain chances
out of the forecast. However, cannot rule out a shower or two on
Tuesday. Evapotranspiration from moist soils and vegetation due to
recent rains maintains near average temperatures and mildly elevated
afternoon heat index values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Dry weather with near normal temperatures until mid-week.

- Thunderstorm chances will return for the latter part of the week.

A mid to upper level ridge will over west TX. Subsident flow around
this ridge will suppress most convection Wednesday. Wednesday high
temperatures will be close to normal. However, southeasterly low
level flow will keep dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s making
heat indices 100 to 105. Thursday an inverted trough will move into
TX from the Gulf weakening the upper ridge. This should allow
afternoon convection to move in from the coast across the Coastal
Plains and into the Hill Country. This unsettled pattern will
continue each afternoon through Sunday. At this time any convection
looks ordinary with only isolated moderate rainfall, but given the
time of year an occasional strong storm isn`t out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The SHRA/TSRA Sunday afternoon into evening have disrupted the lower
level flow while fairly thick clouds at FL200 linger. As a result,
the onset of MVFR CIGs may be delayed. Currently have 08Z for the
I-35 sites and 10Z for KDRT. In addition, due to the rainfall, a
period of IFR, possibly LIFR CIGs is possible early in the morning.
Have introduced TEMPOs for IFR 10Z-14Z. Clouds should mix to VFR by
midday on Monday. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are expected near the Coastal
Plains on Monday with a slight potential of moving to the I-35
corridor by late afternoon. Have left mention out as PROBs are too
low. VRBL winds resume from the S to SE overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  75  97  76 /  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  74  96  75 /  20  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  74  95  75 /  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  73  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  78 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  74  96  75 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  73  96  75 /  20  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  75  93  76 /  20  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  75  95  75 /  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  75  96  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04