891
FXUS64 KEWX 082306
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
606 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Daily sea breeze rain chances in the Coastal Plains through the
  rest of the week with spotty chances extending into South
  Central Texas.

- Humid conditions with above average temperatures and elevated
  heat indices will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Weakly southeasterly flow in the mid-levels is aiding the movement
of diffuse moisture from the Gulf towards South Central Texas.
This supports chances for spotty showers this afternoon and early
evening mainly between the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor.
Condition remain hot within this moist environment and a few spots
could briefly exceed 108F for heat indices later this afternoon.

The overall pattern does not change substantially for Wednesday with
a humid heat continuing to be favored. The latest hi-res guidance
suggests there may be slightly more cloud cover thanks to a weak
inverted trough passing through the area from the Gulf, but cooling
from clouds alone will be fairly minimal. That weak disturbance will
help bring another chance for spotty showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Chances are best over the Coastal
Plains (up to 40%), but given weak capping and broadly moist
atmospheric profiles, chances for isolated rains extend to the I-35
corridor and Hill Country. This is reflected in both HREF and REFS
members, and sporadic shower or storm activity could reach as far
west as the southern Edwards Plateau tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Hot and mostly dry weather is favored this week, but ridging is
expected to weaken and leave the door open for low-end isolated rain
chances (generally around or below 30 percent) across South
Central Texas. A weak area of coastal vorticity on Thursday and
residual activity/outflow boundaries from troughing or a weak
front to the north on Friday are expected to be the main drivers
of these spotty rain chances, along with recurring opportunities
from the coastal seabreeze. While a lack of wind shear or more
concentrated forcing will favor more disorganized activity, the
humid air could support a briefly heavier rain.

Temperatures will stay hot and broadly above normal for early/mid
September. The rain chances will bring scattershot relief from the
heat for isolated areas, but otherwise highs are expected to remain
in the upper 90s to low 100s. With dew points remaining elevated,
heat indices are forecast to continue straddling Heat Advisory
criteria at least through the week for areas outside of the Hill
Country. The hottest period in the forecast could focus around
Friday/Saturday when northwesterly flow aloft dislodges hotter air
aloft over the southern Rockies into our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR flight conditions will primarily prevail. This evening will
feature a slight southeasterly breeze for the I-35 corridor with
the sea breeze with winds decreasing by midnight. Heading into
early Wednesday morning, a region with mostly scattered to broken
low clouds will develop across central portions of the region and
along the Balcones Escarpment. This could result in a period of
MVFR conditions across the San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF),
as we highlight a TEMPO period between 10Z and 14Z. VFR flight
conditions then prevail into and through Wednesday afternoon with
light east-southeast to south-southeasterly breezes. There will
be areas of mid-level cumulus and the opportunity for isolated
showers, perhaps a storm or two in the afternoon. However,
confidence regarding areal coverage of this activity is too low
to include within this TAF package at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 100  77  99 /  20  20  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  98  75  98 /  20  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            75  97  74  96 /   0  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 100  78 100 /   0   0  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  99  76  98 /  10  20  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  74  97 /   0  10  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  99  75  98 /  20  20  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  99  76  98 /   0  30  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  77  97 /  10  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           78 100  77  99 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...62