Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
212 FXUS64 KEWX 292346 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 646 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Flood Watch in effect until 1 PM Friday for the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains, including Val Verde, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Real, and Uvalde Counties. - Rain chances continue through Saturday afternoon, mainly north of U.S. Highway 90, with a drying trend during the evening hours. - Mild temperatures and dry weather for the Sunday and Monday before a cold front moves through Tuesday possibly bringing a line of showers and storms to most areas. - Dry and cool weather expected Wednesday and Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 527 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Expanded the Flood Watch to include Real and Uvalde Counties as short term guidance continues to indicate a consistent signal for a corridor featuring higher rainfall amounts with continued steady rain and some increase in the rain rates (1-3 inch per hour at times) from midnight into early to mid-morning Friday. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches will be expected in the watch area with isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Areas that remain outside of the watch area will see totals range from half an inch to around 2 to 2.5 inches with isolated higher amounts that may be possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Plenty of atmospheric moisture is in place as noted by the 29/12Z DRT sounding showing precipitable water values just under 2". In addition, the current GOES layer precipitable water product shows all of south central Texas at or above 1.5". Radar trends have been fairly consistent through the day, with higher coverage of showers out west mainly over the southern Edwards Plateau. Hi-res models tend to favor our western areas, mainly west of I-35, for the more persistent rain for the remainder of today. However, some light activity can also be expected farther east into the I-35 corridor, with lower chances over the coastal plains. Thunderstorms have not been observed yet as atmospheric instability is limited. However, with continued heating, would not be too surprised to see some thunderstorms initiate off the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande and move northward toward the Rio Grande plains. The rain and clouds will keep daytime highs down in the upper 60s over the southern Edwards Plateau, with near expected in the coastal plains. Additional rounds of convection will develop this evening and overnight across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains as the low-level jet ramps up. A continued supply of low- level moisture from the Gulf along with mid and upper level moisture from `Vance` in the eastern Pacific will allow for rounds of showers and a few storms with moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates should not be overly impressive given the lack of atmospheric instability. However, efficient rain processes and training of cells will likely yield some flooding concerns tonight into Friday morning. Given the recent hi-res guidance showing an uptick in precipitation amounts, we have opted to issue a Flood Watch for the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains region, including Val Verde, Edwards, Kinney and Maverick Counties. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches along with isolated amounts up to 6 inches are possible within the watch area. We have noticed the trend of some higher amounts shifting eastward into the U.S. Highway 83 corridor. This is a fairly recent trend in the hi-res models and will continue to monitor trends for any possible eastward extension of the Flood Watch. With the cloud cover and precipitation, look for fairly uniform overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight with highs on Friday in the mid 60s to near 80 degrees. While rain chances will persist through Friday, it appears the stronger lift will shift north of the region as the day unfolds. This should allow for the higher rainfall amounts to gradually lift northward, especially during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 On Saturday, lingering moisture and instability will be present over the region, with rain chances favored mainly north of U.S. Highway 90. Rain chances should end Saturday evening with some brief clearing of skies expected. Confidence in dry weather for Sunday and Monday remains high as mid-level ridging builds over the area in advance of a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. The medium range operational models are showing some better agreement with respect to the mid-level flow pattern over the southern U.S. plains early next week. A positive tilt trough axis approaches from the west Monday and eventually becomes neutral to slightly negative while traversing through Texas into the lower MS river valley through Wednesday. We`ve seen some timing differences with the frontal passage with the latest models now showing the cold front moving through during the daytime hours. This would likely yield a line of showers and storms with the front and will continue to monitor for the possibility of some strong storms given adequate shear and some instability. Gusty northwest winds behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring some cooler and drier air to the region with highs easing back into the upper 60s and mid 70s along with lows in the upper 40s and 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Very tricky aviation forecast for this package with MVFR CIGs still occurring for KSAT while KSSF has finally reached VFR. KAUS should stay VFR through tonight as most of the heavy rain and cloud deck should be located further west near KDRT. KSAT and KSSF should quickly drop down to MVFR and eventually IFR CIGs by early morning and stay there through the period. Along with low ceilings expect chances of rain to increase as we head into tomorrow with prevailing light rain noted for this forecast. All in all fairly poor flying conditions are expected along the I-35 TAF sites starting tomorrow. For KDRT expect continued poor conditions with recent METARs reporting down to LIFR CIGs. Continued the current TEMPO to account for this otherwise expect mainly IFR CIGs along with fairly heavy rains as noted across the terminal throughout the entirety of this forecast package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 63 71 63 81 / 20 60 60 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 72 62 82 / 20 50 60 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 71 62 82 / 20 70 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 60 67 61 77 / 30 80 60 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 64 73 64 78 / 100 90 40 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 70 61 80 / 20 60 60 20 Hondo Muni Airport 67 71 63 81 / 50 80 40 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 63 71 62 82 / 20 70 50 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 77 64 84 / 10 40 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 65 71 64 81 / 30 70 40 20 Stinson Muni Airport 66 73 65 82 / 30 60 30 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ183>185-202-203-217. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....Platt AVIATION...CJM