898
FXUS64 KEWX 010515
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect from this evening through Friday
  evening for most of South Central Texas.

- Some storms tonight and Thursday may also be strong to severe.

- Low to medium rain chances linger through the weekend then
  decrease heading into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows a 500mb low over the AZ/NM
border producing southwesterly flow over TX. At the surface there
is a low pressure center near the northwest TX/northeast NM border
with a Pacific front extending from it. Over our CWA the flow is
from the southeast keeping our warm, moist airmass in place. This
morning`s soundings at DRT and FWD show PW above 2 inches which is
in the 90th percentile of the climatological record. The combined
upper low will progress toward the northeast pushing the front
into the northwestern part of our CWA tonight. This will be the
beginning of a wet period. With the high PW air, showers and
thunderstorms will be able to produce locally heavy rain. High
resolution models are showing a line of thunderstorms moving
across our CWA from the northwest to the southeast. In addition to
locally heavy rain some storms could be severe producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail with a tornado also possible. A Flood
Watch remains in effect for all of South Central Texas except the
eastern and southeastern edge counties. The watch is in effect
from this evening until Friday evening. We expect widespread
rainfall totals of 1-4 inches with isolated amounts up to eight
inches. The higher rainfall totals will lead to flash flooding.
The front will exit our CWA Friday morning and stall along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

With the front stalled across Deep South Texas, there will be
continuing chances for rain into the weekend. The excessive PW
values will have moved out of our CWA and rainfall totals will be
more moderate. A few showers may linger into Monday. By Tuesday
the front will have moved away and upper level ridging will move
back over Texas bringing dry weather back. With cloudy skies and
scattered showers the long term period will start off cooler with
highs in the 70s and 80s Saturday. From there temperatures will
slowly increase reaching the low to mid 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A rather tricky forecast this morning as the timing of convection
is more uncertain than usual. For now, will opt to reduce
prevailing TSRA to 15-19Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF as hi-res models
are more in line with storms moving through around then. Beyond
20Z, confidence drops off significantly and future TAFs will need
to address whether or not TSRA will redevelop Friday afternoon and
evening. MVFR ceilings look like a strong bet through at least
midday Friday before VFR returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  72  82  69 /  90  90  80  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  71  82  68 /  90  90  80  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  70  81  68 /  90  90  80  50
Burnet Muni Airport            82  70  79  66 /  90  60  70  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  69  85  65 /  50  10  30  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  71  80  67 /  90  80  80  50
Hondo Muni Airport             84  70  81  67 /  90  60  60  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  71  82  67 /  90  90  80  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  72  85  70 /  90  90  80  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  73  81  70 /  90  80  80  50
Stinson Muni Airport           89  73  82  70 /  90  80  80  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ171>173-183>193-
202>208-217>221-223-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...MMM