Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
930 FXUS64 KEWX 021116 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 616 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather continues through the work week. - Rain chances may return this weekend, with some potential for locally heavy rain. However, uncertainty in the forecast is high this far out. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... The slow-moving front that brought last weekend`s rainy weather is now mostly out of our region, resulting in quiet weather returning to our area. A low/mid level ridge axis is swinging south across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas, which will reinforce northerly flow aloft over South Central Texas and keep the front out of the region. Drier continental mid-level air should make for a mostly sunny day today, supporting highs in the 90s this afternoon with upper 90s in the Winter Garden area and along the Rio Grande. The increased northerly flow will siphon off slightly cooler air at 700mb. This slight destabilization may support a spotty low-topped shower or two in the afternoon over the Coastal Plains or Hill Country where low-level theta-e is slightly higher, but most of South-Central Texas will be dry today. Weak northerly winds continue into Wednesday with northwesterly flow aloft thanks to anomalous troughing persisting over the eastern half of CONUS. This leads to warm and dry weather Wednesday with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... Hot and dry weather continues through Thursday and Friday a warmer lobe of air aloft associated with a low/mid level ridge persists over the area under northwest flow in the upper levels. The warmest temperatures of the week will likely be on these days as ridging is strongest during this period. Highs in the upper 90s to around 103 are forecast. The drier continental air accompanying these highs will keep heat indices mostly in line with the air temperature. Over the weekend, our attention turns towards newly designated Tropical Depression Twelve-E in the Eastern Pacific. This system is south of Mexico as of early Tuesday morning and is expected to generally move west-northwest. Although models are split on whether it will curve northeast towards or west away from the Baja California later this week, at the very least mid to upper tropospheric tropical moisture is expected to be pulled from the system northeastward into the southwestern US along the subtropical jet. Depending on the track of the disturbance, the midweek ridge over Texas could be displaced eastward, allowing that tropical moisture to spread across Texas over the weekend with an increase in rain chances across the area into early next week. The magnitude of the transport of moisture into South Central Texas is dependent on the track and timing of the tropical system, so it is still too early to determine heavy rain concerns for the weekend. Along those lines, the NAEFS and ENS ensemble suites and the ECMWF EFI have not yet shown strong indications for anomalous conditions during the period. && .AVIATION (12Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... VFR flying conditions prevail today through Wednesday with most clouds AOA FL035. ISOLD patches of BR will have no impact on the sites this morning and have removed the TEMPOs. Light winds increase to mainly northeasterly at 5 to 10 KTs by midday with mixing, then become light again tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 97 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 97 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 98 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 69 92 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 99 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 94 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 97 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 98 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 95 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 97 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM...Tran AVIATION...04