405
FXUS64 KEWX 171846
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
146 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Key messages:

- Typical hot summer weather with a moderate to breezy south-
southeasterly flow

Mid-level ridging remains centered towards our west across Baja
California but 589 to 592 dam heights do extend eastward over the
region. Surface winds will remain on the moderate to breezy side
through Wednesday evening from the south-southeast thanks to a
tightened pressure gradient associated with a surface low and
dryline extending from the Oklahoma panhandle southward into
portions of West Texas. The pressure gradient weakens Wednesday
night with winds subsiding. We may need to keep an eye for outflow
approaching the region from the north late Wednesday night into
early Thursday but majority of the guidance dissipates outflow
before reaching our area. If an outflow boundary is able to
approach, then there will be the small chance of shower or storm
activity in our northern areas. Otherwise, chances remain minimal
through the short term period.

Afternoon high temperatures will generally peak in the low to mid
90s across most locations while locations around the Rio Grande
climb to or above the 100 degree mark. The peak heat indices are
expected in the 100 to 105 degree range as well with only a few
locations possibly seeing slightly higher values. Overnights will
trend warm with the morning lows ranging from the low 70s in the
Hill Country to the mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Mornings should
start off partly to mostly cloudy with pockets to areas of low
stratus. Skies will then erode into mostly sunny skies by each
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An upper level ridge takes over south central Texas for the extended
forecast period as it moves from west Texas on Thursday and into the
northeast by the weekend. An inverted upper level trough moves over
Deep Texas and northeast Mexico on Thursday and lingers through the
weekend. Low chances for showers and storms stay over the coastal
plains and to the south and southeast of the Austin and San Antonio
metros for the extended forecast time frame.

Overall weather conditions are forecasted to be humid, warm, and
breezy mainly in the afternoons and evenings along the Rio Grande.
Highs are expected to range from the lower 90s up to 103 degrees
along the Rio Grande. Lows remains in the 70s. Afternoon`s heat
indices could reach 100 to 105 in many locations, therefore, stay
hydrated and take frequent breaks if doing activities outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR flight conditions will continue to prevail this afternoon into
tonight with mainly only a few clouds. Low clouds then develop from
the overnight into Wednesday morning with MVFR ceilings across the
I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). Conditions then improve to
VFR levels at those sites by late morning. KDRT is expected to stay
VFR through the period. Winds will be moderate to breezy from the
south to southeast through the period with peak gusts in the 20 to
25 kt range. The wind speeds should trend the lightest during the
overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  96  77  96 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  95  77  95 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  96  76  94 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  95  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 103  79  99 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  95  76  95 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  96  75  93 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  95  76  95 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  93  76  93 /   0   0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  95  77  94 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  77  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Brady