Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
086 FXUS64 KEWX 181048 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 548 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm Saturday with most locations dry, cooler Sunday. - A low chance (10-20%) of isolated showers and storms near the Austin metro area and inland Coastal Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Unseasonable warm conditions continue Saturday ahead of a cold front. A pre-frontal trough/dry line is forecast to move east into the region Saturday afternoon. There is a 10-20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across Llano, Burnet, Williamson, and Travis counties mid afternoon through early evening and east of the I-35 corridor Saturday evening. However, the bulk of the stronger mid and upper level forcing is forecast to remain north of the region. The cold front is forecast to drop south behind the pre-frontal trough overnight, scouring out any remaining low level moisture. Breezy conditions are forecast Sunday morning through early afternoon across the Hill Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor, with north to northeast winds sustained around 20 mph and gusts around 30 mph in some areas. The wind speeds are forecast to gradually diminish late afternoon and evening Sunday, with a weak southeast flow already re-developing along the Rio Grande. High temperatures Saturday again in the upper 80s to mid 90s, but cooler on Sunday, in the low 80s north to upper 80s to around 90 south. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Cooler and dry Sunday night, especially across the eastern Hill Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor where winds de- couple. Low temperatures Monday morning are forecast to be in the 50s for this region, but warmer, in the low 60s, along the Rio Grande where southeast winds don`t fully de-couple. Southerly winds quickly strengthen across the entire area by midday Monday with a big rebound in temperatures forecast as highs reach back into the upper 80s to mid 90s. A progressive pattern sets in, as a trough to the north sends another cold front into the area on Tuesday. It appears moisture recovery will be minimal Monday night, and combined with forcing removed well to the north this second front is currently forecast to be dry. Slightly cooler post-frontal conditions are forecast Tuesday. Southerly return flow quickly re-establishes over the region by Wednesday. There is low confidence in the forecast at the end of next regarding whether or not another cold front makes it Friday and any rain chances associated with it. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 MVFR cigs are dominating the I-35 corridor terminals as of 11Z Saturday. However, within the next hour, NBM guidance suggests for KSAT and KSSF to drop to IFR category for a couple of hours, before returning to MVFR conditions through mid morning. VFR cigs are forecast to return mid to late morning and continue through late tonight. For KDRT, decided to remove the tempo group with MVFR conditions for couple of hours to start at 12Z due to drier conditions than anticipated earlier. Otherwise, south to southwest are forecast for most of the day and shifting to the west to northwest as the dry line pushes across the local area. Later tonight, the wind turns to the north as a cold front pushes across the local area. Continued to keep out the mentioning of showers and storms across KAUS mid to late afternoon due to low probabilities. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A cold front will move through the region Saturday night. Much drier post-frontal conditions are forecast Sunday, along with gusty north to northeast winds in the morning through early afternoon. Some gusts could approach 30 mph across the Hill Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor as RH values fall into the mid 20s around midday. Given the status of the dry fuel conditions, these forecast wind speeds and RH values will lead to near-critical fire weather conditions across the Hill Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor. The wind speeds are forecast to gradually weaken mid to late afternoon when minimum RH values fall into the mid teen to mid 20s, so confidence of reaching Red Flag Criteria is currently low. At a minimum, a Fire Danger Statement will likely need to be issued later on Saturday for Sunday. A southerly return flow strengthens on Monday, however significant moisture return will likely not occur. Southerly wind gusts between 20-30 mph coinciding with minimum RH values in the mid 20s to mid 30s will lead to elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across the entire region Monday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 94 63 84 58 / 20 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 63 85 49 / 20 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 94 63 86 53 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 58 80 55 / 20 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 63 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 92 61 81 50 / 20 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 94 63 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 95 63 86 50 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 63 85 50 / 20 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 93 66 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 95 67 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...76 LONG TERM....76 AVIATION...17