354
FXUS64 KEWX 160558
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1258 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Low rain chances in the coastal plains through late week,
spreading further inland on Thursday.

- Above average temperatures continue through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Upper level ridging that extends from the southeast states into
the local area continues to dominate through the short term
period. Slightly cooler temperatures (a few degrees less than
Tuesday over some locations) are forecast for Wednesday across
south-central Texas, however, still above normal values. Forecast
highs ranging from the mid to upper 90s and up to 103 degrees
across the Rio Grande plains. Heat index values will be elevated
during the afternoon reaching the 100 to 107 over most areas. A
brief moment of higher values can`t be ruled out across the
coastal plains in the afternoon, however, between clouds and
chances for rain over those areas, I have decided to hold off on
issuing a Heat Advisory.

By Thursday, humidity levels increase with the passage of a weak low
to mid level disturbance. There are isolated to scattered chances of
rain (20 to 50 percent) across the coastal plains and areas along
the I-35 corridor. Forecast highs for Thursday looking around the
mid to upper 90s and up to 100.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

By Friday, drier conditions are forecast to push across the local
area throughout the day with limited shower activity across the
coastal plains where activity is favored. The upper level high moves
back into our area over the weekend to limit any shower activity. An
upper level disturbance is forecast to move westward across the Gulf
states over the weekend into early next week. Latest guidance
showing this feature slowing and staying across the Gulf northern
water and then moving to the southwest as an inverted trough. So,
confidence is low as far as how much rain will get next week.
However, our confidence is moderate to high when it comes to high
temperatures remaining above normal climate values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Onshore flow will soften up over the next day leading to a less
gusty environment than we saw yesterday. Onshore flow remains
persistent and the moisture and low clouds should continua to
form for another day. Late period low clouds for early Thursday
morning look less certain as the NAM MOS data didn`t pick up on
any. No convection is expected to make it far enough inland to
reach I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             101  78 100  76 /   0   0  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  77  99  75 /   0   0  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  75  98  74 /   0   0  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            97  74  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  77  99  77 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport       100  77  99  75 /   0   0  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             99  74  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  75  99  74 /  10   0  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  77  98  75 /  10   0  30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  77  97  77 /   0   0  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport          101  77  99  77 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...18