270
FXUS64 KEWX 170800
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
300 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A flattened ridge axis over Central TX will warm up our region
nicely while a zonal pattern from North TX into the Central Plains
will contribute to a breezy south wind in the short term. Dry SSW
winds in the upper part of the mixed layer will add to the warming
effect on the western counties leading to a more comprehensive mix
out of the surface dew points into as low as the upper 50s and
minimum RH values falling into the 20s. Thus we should expect areas
near the Rio Grande climb up into the 100-105 range with not much
contribution from the heat index. Farther east, we`ll transition to
less of a separation from Gulf moisture and see highs slightly above
normals but with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s pushing the heat
index into the 100-107 range. While we wouldn`t encourage extended
hours to be spent outdoors, the impacts, at least for people, could
be minimized by the gusty afternoon winds up to 30 mph that could
help with sweat evaporation. The overnight breezes will also continue
to set up a repeat day for much of Wednesday. However, conditions
late in the afternoon into early evening could feel more
uncomfortable, as a shortwave having passed to the north could lead
to lowering winds by 00Z Thursday. So if the doggie is overdue for a
walk, maybe do it this evening once the pavement heat mellows out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

After a passing shortwave to the north has a chance to light up a
complex of storms over the Red River Wednesday evening, some debris
clouds could drift south and bring a bit more compromise to solar
heating for Thursday. Persistent onshore flow over eastern counties
and possibly a little moisture and instability coming south from the
mid levels Thursday afternoon could lead to a few air mass
thunderstorms that should abate in the early evening. Friday could
see a few more storms spread west into the Rio Grande Plains late in
the day. This is because the H5 ridge tracks east in the wake of the
Wednesday shortwave along the Red River and potentially sends any
elevated mid level moisture pockets westward. Central TX will
probably stay dry Friday, and this could happen over all areas
should the H5 ridge axis trend even closer to Central TX.

By Saturday, medium range deterministic solutions show pretty good
agreement on a mid to upper level ridge being well stacked from the
mid Mississippi River valley to the mid-Atlantic coast. Over the
Pacific NW, a broad upper trough is deepening, and in between TX gets
a deep low to mid level onshore wind which should be good for
promoting not only a few more rain opportunities, but a typical mid-
June high temperature, and some afternoon and evening breezes. This
pattern looks to hold for a few days before mid level ridging tries
to expand east toward the middle of next week. There are no
significant tropical teleconnections foreseen in this pattern, but
some stacking of higher PWat values Monday into next Tuesday might
mean all areas of South Central TX would get at another isolated shot
at a summer shower. While this not be the drought relief pattern we
still need, it at least prolongs the near normal June temperatures
that have seemed to elude us over most of the past several years.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR flying conditions turn MVFR by 10Z at the I-35 sites and 12Z at
KDRT. Mixing brings a return to VFR late Tuesday morning. S to SE
winds prevail becoming breezy with gusts up to 25 KTs late morning
through evening on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  76  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  76  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            96  74  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  78 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  76  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  76  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  97  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...18
Aviation...04