745
FXUS64 KEWX 031825
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1225 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Dry and seasonable conditions this week with cool mornings and
  mild afternoons.

- Another weak cold front arrives Thursday with low rain chances
  for the Coastal Plains.

- Potential for cooler weather this weekend with low chances for
  rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A few spots in the Austin area, Hill Country, Coastal Plains, and
in the southern Edwards Plateau picked up 1 to 2 inches of rain
from the showers and storms accompanying this morning`s cold
front, though most of the area received amounts in the 0.1 to 0.5
inch range. The front has now pushed east with drier air now
spreading across the region. We don`t anticipate much post-
frontal wind due to low mixing heights and rather low momentum in
the lowest 3 km, so the area will be entreated to only a light to
moderate and dry northwest breeze this afternoon and evening.

With the drier continental air in place, temperatures tonight will
be cooler than previous days with lows in the 50s across the lower
plains and in the 40s for the higher elevations in the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. Wednesday will be a pleasant and virtually
cloudless day with highs in the 70s, followed by another cool night
in the upper 40s to mid 50s with good radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A trough and accompanying front is forecast to move across South-
Central Texas on Thursday. The moisture supply for this front will
be limited since only two days will have passed since the previous
front, so low rain chances (20-40%) are limited to the Coastal
Plains. The passage of that front will clear the air again for a dry
and seasonable Friday.

Over the weekend, a southern branch polar trough is set to amplify
across the Central Plains and the Midwest. This sets up a favorable
pattern for northerly flow aloft, which should reinforce cool air
over Texas. It does not look like this will bring a sharp change in
temperatures, but highs over the weekend look to gradually decline
into the 60s and low 70s with overnight lows in the 40s becoming
more widespread. There is a 20 percent chance of rain this weekend
for areas south of I-10 as this oozing of cool air interacts with
moisture delivered by a subtropical trough over Mexico. If the
subtropical trough is further away, as depicted in the GFS/GEFS and
their ML counterparts, then this rain will tend to be lighter. If
the trough is closer, as depicted in the ECMWF/EPS and their ML
counterparts, then there may be more meaningful amounts above 1".
There is ample uncertainty regarding the timing of that trough, so
rain chances this weekend may vary significantly in subsequent
forecasts until the trough becomes better defined. In any case, the
weekend should be slightly cooler than average for mid-November.
Conditions early next week will also depend on whether the trough
clears out of our area, but the overall wavy upper-air pattern over
the western US should set up additional opportunities for cooler and
drier air to cycle into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

After a FROPA, winds will remain between 330-350 around 10-12 kts
through most of the period. The exception will be at AUS and DRT
where winds will drop quickly after 03Z to less than 5 kts. At
DRT, it will likely be calm winds through a good portion of the
forecast, which is quite rare. VFR is expected through this entire
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              53  74  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  50  75  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     51  75  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            50  71  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           53  74  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        49  72  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             50  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        50  75  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   51  76  49  81 /   0   0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       53  75  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           54  75  54  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...MMM