110
FXUS64 KEWX 172335
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
635 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Hot and rain free conditions persist. The humidity and heat risk
  to slowly uptick for the second half of the week into weekend.
  Practice heat safety.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Hot and sunny conditions prevail today with the likely lowest dew
points of the week during peak daytime heating this afternoon. The
highs will again climb into the 100 to 103 degree range for most
except for the cooler favored areas across the Hill Country and
Southern Edwards Plateau. The peak heat indices with the drier air
maintain near or slightly above the ambient temperature. The dew
points will recover overnight, as it does most nights, but are not
forecast to mix down as well on Tuesday afternoon as compared to
this afternoon. The dew points are actually forecast to mix out
better for Wednesday afternoon than Tuesday afternoon for most. It
is difficult to discern the main difference but when looking at the
850-700 mb layer, Tuesday afternoon does seems to favor a more
southeasterly oriented flow across that layer while today is more
easterly across that layer and Wednesday afternoon then turns more
southerly to south-southwesterly within that layer. Overall as a
result, while the ambient temperatures look to remain of within a
degree or so of the highs today, Tuesday afternoon will likely see
the highest heat indices out of the next three days. The coastal
plains could see some locations in the 106 to 109 degree range.
Outside from some scattered low clouds and perhaps a little bit of
patchy fog in the coastal plains tonight into Tuesday morning, a
mostly to completely clear sky prevails.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The weather regime remains similar for the second half of the week
through the weekend. The region remains under the influence of the
sub-tropical ridge, which will begin to amplify across the Four
Corners region before gradually sliding back southeastward towards
Texas this weekend. Surface high pressure also maintains over the
Gulf and yields a persistent light to modest south-southeasterly
flow across the region. Hot daytime high temperatures, most in the
100 to 103 degree range outside of the cooler terrain influenced
regions, will continue with little day to day fluctuation. However,
with the subtle day to day increase in the low-level moisture and
humidity beyond Wednesday, expect for the peak heat indices and
overall heat risk to slowly rise. We`ll closely analyze values
towards the short term, as the NBM has been a little too high with
dew points beyond the day 4 period regarding mixing through the
afternoon periods, but enough of the region may see the heat risk
climb with combination of the temperature/heat indices for the
possible need of heat advisories at some point. Conditions look to
remain rain free otherwise with development of morning low clouds
eroding to mostly sunny skies each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all forecast
terminals. Southeast winds today will eventually turn light and
variable overnight before picking back up from the south generally
around or under 10 knots. There is a low potential for MVFR CIGS
overnight at KSAT and KSSF. The light winds and lack of model
support has us favoring VFR through the period. Some slightly
stronger evening winds are projected at the end of the TAF period
for SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 102  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74 100  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76 101  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74 100  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...18