849
FXUS64 KEWX 170550
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1250 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm weather continues through the weekend and early next
  week.

- Low chance of isolated showers over the Coastal Plains Friday
  afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Quiet weather continues today as high pressure slowly strengthens
over our area, with a repeating pattern of morning clouds and
afternoon clearing. Highs similar to Wednesday are expected,
reaching the 90s with the warmest temperatures along the I-35
corridor, along the Rio Grande and in the Rio Grande Plains. A
slightly drier airmass courtesy of a 700mb ridge axis looks to
temper humidity slightly, with heat indices still reaching the upper
90s and low 100s but topping out a few degrees below yesterday.

We continue to monitor the progress of the broad tropical low
pressure area designated Invest 93L over the northern Gulf and
coastal Louisiana, which was still disorganized as of early Thursday
morning. Southerly low to mid-level steering flow over the lower
Mississippi Valley is forecast to continue bringing the disturbance
west across coastal Louisiana today and tomorrow. Westerly flow
aloft will carry some moisture into our area Friday, and this could
be accompanied by some isolated showers moving across East Texas into
the eastern reaches of our area mainly along and east of Highway 77.
However, rain chances remain low... less than about 25 percent and
limited to the Coastal Plains Friday afternoon and evening... and for
the rest of South Central Texas, an increase in clouds might be the
only sign of the tropical disturbance`s presence. Those clouds could
help bring down Friday`s daytime highs by about 2 to 3 degrees
relative to Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Whatever remains of Invest 93L is expected to thin out as it works
its way inland over the weekend. In its place, models continue to
strengthen ridging over our area, centering a distinct region of
deep-layer high pressure over our area for possibly the first time
in about a month. That high pressure might scoot around slightly
heading into next week, but there is strong consensus among model
ensembles that it will remain over our area through mid-week, and
there is some possibility that South-Central Texas may remain under
its influence for the remainder of July.

Under this more typical July weather pattern, drier and warmer
conditions are expected for the weekend heading into next week.
Highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices of 100 to 107 will
likely be commonplace and widespread Saturday onwards, so be sure to
hydrate and take frequent breaks if you plan to be outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Brief MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over I-35 sites after
09Z, but scatter around 14-15Z before VFR conditions return for the
rest of the day. At DRT, VFR will prevail. Gusty wind continues to
impact portions of the southern I-35 corridor into the Rio Grande
Plains, but should decrease over the next hour or two. South to
southeast wind will be seen across South Central Texas this
afternoon with gusty wind around 20 knots at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  74  94  76 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  73  93  75 /   0   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  72  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  71  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  74  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  72  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  71  93  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  72  93  75 /   0   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  74  91  76 /   0   0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  74  94  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           99  74  96  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Tran
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...27