Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
430 FXUS64 KEWX 042254 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 554 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures Friday. - Rain chances return this weekend with the potential for locally heavy rain and flooding. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... A deep upper level trough over the eastern half of the country has northwesterly flow over Texas. A weak pressure gradient at the surface has mainly light winds mostly from the southwest across our CWA. Dewpoint temperatures are a few degrees lower and temperatures are a few degrees higher than 24 hours ago. In the short term the upper trough will lift off to the northeast allowing the subtropical ridge to build back over Texas. While this shift occurs the low level flow will become more southeasterly bringing moister air back to the region. This will mean warmer lows Friday which will be back to near normal. The upper ridge will keep the weather dry Friday. With the winds more southeasterly temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower than today. Friday night will be about the same as tonight. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... Another deep upper trough will dig down from the Central Plains to the southeastern states Saturday turning the upper flow back to northwesterly over Texas. A weak frontal boundary will move into our CWA bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Over the past couple of days models have been projecting moisture from Pacific TS Lorena into Texas, but they are starting to trend a little drier today. The official storm track now has Lorena dissipating over the Pacific off the coast of the Baja Peninsula and this may mean less moist air moving across Mexico. The NBM still has high POPs for the Sunday/Monday timeframe and it still looks like there will be showers and thunderstorms with the front stalled in the area. However, rain amounts are beginning to trend a bit lower. Uncertainty is quite high and WPC still has a slight (level 2 of 3) risk for excessive rainfall, but it may take another cycle before we`re comfortable changing that. That forecast time is still several days away. The front will remain in the region and rain chances will linger into Tuesday. The upper ridge will build back over Texas and dry the weather for the middle of next week. After a couple of cooler days to start the week temperatures will climb back up to near normal mid-week. && .AVIATION (00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. High clouds will continue to move over South Central Texas from the northwest tonight. Additionally, a few low clouds are possible near sunrise. Winds remain light under 10 knots from the south-southeast to east- southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 100 74 90 / 0 0 10 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 100 75 91 / 0 0 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 100 74 92 / 0 0 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 73 96 71 83 / 0 0 10 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 101 78 94 / 0 10 10 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 99 73 87 / 0 0 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 72 100 74 92 / 0 0 10 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 101 73 92 / 0 0 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 98 74 92 / 0 0 0 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 100 76 93 / 0 0 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 76 101 77 94 / 0 0 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...27