Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
733 FXUS64 KEWX 171756 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1156 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm and muggy weather is expected into midweek with morning low clouds, patchy fog, and drizzle. - A upper-level Pacific trough will bring a cold front to the region Thursday evening and and medium to high (60-90%) chance of rain to the region, particularly on Thursday. There is the potential for excessive rainfall with this system. - There is uncertainty with a second Pacific trough that could move eastward this weekend or early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Southeasterly surface flow will continue to advect warm and humid Gulf air into the region, resulting in unseasonably warm and humid conditions that will continue into tomorrow and tomorrow night. This moisture advection will support the development of widespread low clouds throughout the region tonight which should linger into mid- morning tomorrow. Some isolated patches of drizzle are also possible early tomorrow morning before conditions begin improving by early afternoon. Tomorrow`s high temperatures will be well above normal, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will also be above seasonal averages, getting down into the mid-to-upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 An upper-level Pacific trough is expected to move eastward and eject over the Central/Southern Plains later this week, which will bring a cold front to the area. Current guidance is trending a little bit slower than previous guidance on the timing of the cold front`s arrival, which is expected to arrive Thursday evening. Southeasterly surface flow will continue through Thursday afternoon with slightly increasing wind speeds as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching front. Temperatures will remain well above average in the warm sector, with PWATs steadily increasing as high as 1.5 inches by Wednesday, continuing to increase to as high as 2 inches immediately ahead of the front by Thursday. With higher PWAT values, this environment is conducive for areas of heavy rainfall to develop in the warm sector. Rainfall chances start to significantly increase on Wednesday, with a 40-50% chance for the Edwards Plateau eastward into Austin-San Antonio, with slightly lower (30-40%) chances for areas east of I- 35. POPs will continue to increase overnight Wednesday into Thursday, where precip chances will climb as high as 80-90% for areas west-northwest of Austin-San Antonio and 60-80% for areas east of the metro area. While much of this rainfall will be beneficial, particularly for the most drought-stricken southeast areas of the CWA, there could also be some nuisance flooding concerns as well. The Weather Prediction Center currently has a portion of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Wednesday, and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Thursday. DESI NBM guidance suggests that there is a 50-70% chance that some areas (particularly in the northern and extreme western portions of the CWA) could receive more than 2 inches of rain, and a 20-30% chance that these areas could receive over 3 inches between Wednesday and Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center also has the area in a general risk for thunderstorms on Thursday, with the potential for some marginal hail to fall with any of the stronger storms that happen to form. At this time, thunderstorms are not forecasted to become severe. Precipitation chances are expected to decrease Thursday night into Friday as the front moves east of the area and cooler, drier air is ushered into the region. Temperatures will also decrease to more seasonal levels through the weekend, with highs in the low-to-mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Medium range model guidance suggests that another upper-level Pacific trough could move eastward this weekend or early next week, potentially bringing additional rainfall to the area. However, the models are currently not in agreement on the timing and progression of this system, so there is considerable uncertainty with the forecast. More progressive models are suggesting cooler forecast with better chances for rain, while models that have the system moving more slowly are proposing a drier, warmer forecast. The forecast will continue to be updated throughout the week as more guidance comes in. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 MVFR conditions with low ceilings have persisted across portions of South Central Texas through this morning, with some indications of improvement over the last couple of hours. VFR conditions are expected to return this afternoon into this evening before another round of low ceilings returns tonight into Tuesday, bringing MVFR to potential IFR conditions back over South Texas aerodromes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 86 69 85 / 10 10 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 86 67 85 / 10 10 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 86 67 86 / 10 10 10 40 Burnet Muni Airport 68 82 66 81 / 0 10 10 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 84 68 81 / 0 10 10 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 84 66 84 / 10 10 10 40 Hondo Muni Airport 67 85 67 86 / 10 10 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 86 66 86 / 10 10 10 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 87 67 85 / 10 10 10 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 85 69 85 / 10 10 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 70 86 70 86 / 10 10 20 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...27