401
FXUS64 KEWX 141749
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.Key Messages

- Flood Watch extended until 9 PM for the Hill Country, Southern
  Edwards Plateau, and Travis/Williamson Counties

- A quick additional inch or two of rainfall possible within the
  watch area with isolated higher totals of 3 to 5 inches. May see
  additional river rises possible.

- Drier regime mid to late week with slightly higher temperatures

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The latest observational, satellite, and radar trends indicate two
MCVs nearby. One is located over Mexico hugging the Rio Grande while
another is west of the Waco area. The MCV closer to Waco will be
expected to move farther away and becomes less of an influence to our
region today. However, the other MCV along the Rio Grande is now
indicated by the latest CAMs to gradually lift northwards toward the
Southern Edwards Plateau and Sonora region. Expect for the greatest
rain and storm activity to remain most focused across our western
areas during the overnight into early this morning with the MCV.
However, recent runs of the short term CAM guidance also indicates
that the MCV likely will help to rejuvenate additional rain and
storm activity, especially during the peak daytime heating from late
morning through early evening across the Hill Country and Southern
Edwards Plateau. While the 00Z HRRR run was the most aggressive and
concerning with this solution, it is not alone on this idea. Locally
heavy rainfall could be possible where a quick couple of inches may
be possible in a short period of time and this would extend and
exacerbate any flooding concerns over already saturated areas. With
these concerns, we`ll elect to extend the Flood Watch until 9 pm
tonight for the most saturated and recently flooded portions of the
Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and across Travis/Williamson
counties. Where rain has been a bit more sparse farther south along
I-35, we`ll drop a few counties from the watch, including Bexar
County.

Activity could extend into tonight before guidance shows a fading
signal for activity from the overnight into Tuesday morning. Enough
moisture lingers into Tuesday afternoon where isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms may develop across the area with the
help from daytime heating. Guidance is much less active on Tuesday
and shows activity remaining diurnal and ending entering Tuesday
night.

The daytime highs remain slightly below average from the upper 80s
into the mid 90s under partly clear to overcast conditions while
overnight lows remain warm and humid in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A drier weather pattern establishes mid to late next week with the
influence of ridging nudging westward into the area from the Gulf
waters. Most areas should remain rain free outside from perhaps a
stray to isolated shower or storm cell with the onshore flow and/or
sea breeze. Best chance of this would be Thursday in the coastal
plains. With the decrease in overall cloud cover and slightly
stronger 500 mb heights, expect for a slight uptick in the daytime
highs through the second half of the week and into the weekend.

Right now, rain chances remain out of the forecast, but we`ll also
monitor for the possible development of a tropical disturbance or
inverted trough following behind in the wake of the upper level
ridging that nudges to our area. This feature may slowly advance
westward along/parallel to the northern Gulf coast towards and
through the weekend. We continue to monitor to see if this feature
gains additional model support within the coming forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The main concern through the forecast period is the current MCV
making its way across South-Central Texas, especially across the
Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country. Currently the MCV has shown
signs of weakening and likely not making its way to the I-35 TAF
terminals. The greatest probability for flight impacts continues to
be for KDRT. There are chances that some redevelopment could occur
across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) later today,
primarily during the afternoon. Confidence on placement and timing,
however, is low. Nonetheless have added PROB30s to account for this
possibility with VCSHs added for this evening into the overnight
hours for all TAF sites. MVFR and possibly IFR flight conditions
make a return overnight into late Tuesday morning with VFR conditions
returning Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  94  75  96 /  30  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  94  75  95 /  20  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  95  74  96 /  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  91  73  92 /  40  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  93  77  96 /  30  30  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  93  74  94 /  30  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  92  75  95 /  30  30  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  95  74  96 /  20  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  75  94 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  94  77  96 /  30  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  77  98 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Blanco-Burnet-
Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val
Verde-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...CJM