481
FXUS64 KEWX 040629
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1229 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- A dry and cool airmass brings comfortable weather conditions
  with highs in 70s today.

- Potential for another frontal passage Thursday/Friday, with a
  secondary front possible over the weekend but differences in
  timing/rain exist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1227 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A zonal flow aloft dominates South Central Texas throughout the day
on Wednesday and continues into Wednesday evening. Closer to the
surface, a dry and cooler airmass spreads across the local area
overnight to bring lows into the mid to upper 40s across portions of
the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to the low 50s
elsewhere. Light northerly winds are forecast to prevail across most
areas overnight through late morning. Then, wind shifts to the
northeast and east across the eastern two-thirds of South Central
Texas in the afternoon while a southeast flow gets established along
the Rio Grande Plains. We may see a few high clouds during the day,
otherwise, sunny skies with highs in the 70s over most places with a
few locations getting into the low 80s across the Rio Grande.

Dry conditions persist on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
However, the upper level flow aloft changes from a zonal to a
southwest direction as an upper level storm system moves across the
Four Corners region into the Southern Plains. Overnight lows remain
cool across the local area for this period ranging from the upper
40s to upper 50s. Low level moisture increases for this period with
the return of southerly flow and therefore, scattered clouds are
anticipated to develop across the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and
Rio Grande Plains.

The upper level storm system above mentioned pushes across the Texas
Panhandle midday and at the surface sends a cold front our way. This
cold front pushes first across the southern Edwards Plateau and
portions the Rio Grande mid to late afternoon before advancing to the
southeast into the I-35 corridor close to sunset. The frontal
boundary brings another opportunity for showers and storms, however,
most likely across the Coastal Plains especially along and south of
Highway 72, where the highest moisture levels stay. At this time, we
are going with a rain-free forecast, however, a few showers can`t be
rule out before the day ends over the southern portion of the Rio
Grande Plains. As far as rainfall amounts, we are looking at a few
hundredths at most.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1227 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The frontal boundary continues to slowly push to the southeast and
over the Coastal Plains on Thursday evening/early Friday morning. No
rain anticipated across our area for this period. Otherwise, another
round of cool airmass spreads across South Central Texas in the wake
of the front with lows in the 40s and 50s. Breezy northerly winds
are forecast for Thursday night into the overnight hours.

Friday`s high range from the mid to upper 60s across the Hill
Country and southern Edwards Plateau to mid 70s over the rest of the
local area. Northerly breezes are forecast for Friday with partly
cloudy skies.

The upcoming weekend brings some challenges as far as what to expect.
The GEFS solution is faster than the EPS for our next upper level
trough and therefore, one brings more showers and storms across the
local area than the other. A blend of these solutions give us rain
chances of 20 percent across South Central Texas especially from
midday Saturday to midday Sunday. The Rio Grande and southern
Edwards Plateau are favored for getting the best chances for rain.
QPF values for the period could range from a few hundredths to one
quarter to half inch. Then, dry and cooler weather returns through
at least Wednesday of next week in the wake of the weekend cold
front passage. Highs over the weekend to range from the low 60s to
low 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Slow warming early next week
with highs reaching low to mid 70s by Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Northerly winds are bringing drier air behind a cold front. This
is keeping skies mainly clear. All terminals will be VFR through
this TAF period. Winds in Austin and San Antonio will be light out
of the north. At DRT, light winds overnight will become
southeasterly Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  53  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  50  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  52  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  57  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  53  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  50  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  51  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  55  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  56  80  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05