Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
107 FXUS64 KEWX 120016 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 616 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions over all of South Central Texas Today. - Warming trend ahead of a weekend storm system that brings low to medium (20-40%) rain and storm chances. - Potential for a more significant storm system towards the middle to end of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Light west-northwesterly flow is noted on regional water vapor imagery early this afternoon. Very dry air is noted on the 12Z sounding at DRT and that is clearly depicted on satellite imagery this afternoon. Surface RH values will fall to between 15-25%, and in combination with S to SSW winds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, critical fire weather conditions will continue through the early evening hours. Temperatures should respond/warm rather quickly given southerly flow and dry air, with highs topping out in the lower to middle 70s. Tonight, a rapid increase in surface moisture is expected as southeasterly return flow ramps up and surface dewpoints climb from the 20s/30s to the 40s/50s Wednesday morning. With the increasing moisture, it won`t be nearly as chilly tonight, as temperatures fall into mid 40s to mid 50s. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will be quite warm after a chilly couple of days to end the weekend and start the work week. Most, if not everyone will warm into the lower to middle 80s Wednesday afternoon with plenty of sunshine and comfortable humidity. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 The longwave pattern remains rather benign through the remainder of the work week with mild mornings and warm afternoons continuing through Friday. This weekend, a surface low will develop over the Panhandle, increasing southeasterly flow over eastern and central Texas. Our next trough approaches late Saturday into early Sunday, but models differ on the strength of this trough and how far south it will move. The further south it moves, the better the rain chances. For now, PoPs remain low, between 20-40%, as we await better model agreement on the placement of the trough. After this system, we look towards the middle to end of next week for the next shot at rain and storms and the CPC has issued a low to moderate risk for heavy rain for the eastern half of our area November 20-21st with another trough that looks a bit more promising for precipitation. This is still 10 days out, so we will have to give it some time before confidence can increase in much needed rainfall. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions are in store at area TAF sites through the current forecast period. Gusty south winds will continue to decrease through sunset, with light southerly winds remaining intact along I-35 and light southeast to east winds at DRT. Wind speeds begin to pick up late tomorrow morning, with some gusty conditions likely coming back to the I-35 sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 6pm this evening for all of South Central Texas. With south to southwesterly flow picking up this afternoon at 10-20 mph along with gusts up to 30 mph, and minimum relative humidities falling to 15-25%, critical fire weather is expected through the late afternoon/early evening. Any fire weather concerns should rapidly decrease after sunset as winds relax and surface dewpoints rapidly rise back into the 40s and 50s after midnight as southeasterly return flow increases. This will result in a warmer day Wednesday along with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 54 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 51 82 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 50 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 50 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 48 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 51 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 46 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 50 83 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 53 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 52 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 52 83 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...Platt