Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
885 FXUS64 KEWX 062319 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 619 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain possible across parts of the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains for the rest of today and Sunday. Localized flooding possible. - Dry weather returns on late Monday into Tuesday and remains through the work week. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... An upper level short wave axis is moving across the east Texas coast as of 1 PM CDT today, while several perturbations are noticeable across South Central Texas in an northwest flow aloft using the 500mb RAP analysis and lower level water vapor imagery. At the surface, a cold front is detected and extends from the Hill Country to Val Verde County. The frontal boundary is forecast to slowly push to the south for the rest of today into the evening. Then, it stalls across the coastal plains through late Sunday evening before starts to push away or dissipates. When looking at area forecast soundings, they reveal precipitable water values in the range of 2.0 to 2.3 inches across the local area during the passage of the frontal boundary. Also, mean wind flow appears to be around 10 to 15 knots (slow moving cells) and this can aid storms to produce locally heavy rain which ultimately could result in localized flooding. Today`s rains are likely to concentrate over the Hill Country, portions of the I-35 corridor including Austin and San Antonio metros, southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and coastal plains areas. Highest rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible. Isolated amounts up to 5 inches can`t be ruled out. With the loss of daytime heating early this evening, the shower and thunderstorm activity could remain over the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and coastal plains. For the rest of the local area, rain chances are limited to 20-30 percent range. Showers and storms return on Sunday as the frontal boundary remains across the coastal plains and a few upper level perturbations push across the local area. There is the chance for locally heavy rain and localized flooding especially across parts of the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and coastal plains. New rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with higher amounts. The frontal boundary finally dissipates or pushes away from the local area on Monday and marks the return of dry conditions for some areas especially the Hill County. Cooler on Sunday with highs ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... The dry conditions continue to spread across South Central Texas on Monday night into Tuesday with this conditions persisting through Friday. Can`t rule out a few showers or storms across the coastal plains later in the week with the help of sea breeze convergence. High temperatures are forecast to warm up back to normal values ranging from the lower to upper 90s for the work week period. && .AVIATION (23Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A cold front is now south of all terminals with lingering thunderstorms in the west and some showers in the east. Activity is expected to lessen tonight, though some models continue storms in the west near the Rio Grande. Models vary with MVFR ceilings overnight so used persistence to continue low ceilings much of Sunday morning before returning to VFR. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again Sunday. First around DRT in the early morning hours, with better chances for I-35 terminals late morning into the afternoon hours. Confidence on storm coverage and location remains low so only PROB30 groups have been used for this update. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 88 71 91 / 30 30 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 87 69 91 / 30 30 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 89 70 92 / 40 40 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 67 83 68 86 / 20 30 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 86 73 90 / 70 70 30 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 85 67 89 / 20 30 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 70 87 70 91 / 50 60 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 89 69 93 / 40 40 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 88 70 91 / 30 50 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 88 73 92 / 50 60 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 74 90 74 93 / 50 60 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...27