Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
269 FXUS64 KEWX 120603 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1203 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much warmer rest of this week through this weekend into next week. - Trending drier this weekend into early next week, then possibly wetter middle to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 After a chilly start to this week, southerly flow has returned and will bring a warming trend back to above average temperatures as lower level thermal ridging and warm/dry upper level ridging build over our area. In addition, increasing lower level moisture allows humidities to recover which should mitigate fire weather concerns. Low clouds return tonight, then mix to sunshine Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Moderate southerly lower flow and stout lower level thermal ridge underneath the upper level ridge maintain the well above average temperatures through the weekend. Due to subsidence from the upper ridge overhead, have removed POPs from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. Models are now in better agreement in taking the advertised upper level trough well north of our area on Monday. A brief incursion of a weak Pacific front into the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Rio Grande Plains is expected Monday afternoon into evening. Forcing by these features is weak, though strong enough for isolated showers over the eastern Hill Country to along and east of I-35 on Monday. Have capped POPs at 20s for Monday. Models continue uncertainty for middle to late next week due to the disagreement on passages of an upper level trough and surface cold front. For now, will maintain the blended guidances, though expect them to change with time should models get in better agreement and consistency. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions for most areas tonight and Wednesday. The exception may be patchy fog and low stratus near and south of SSF 10Z-14Z, where HREF indicates a low probability (30-50%) of IFR conditions. Low stratus and fog could become more widespread 06Z-15Z Thursday. SE to SW winds decreasing to around 5 KT overnight for most locations, increasing to 8-15KT Wednesday afternoon across the Hill Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 After elevated to critical fire weather conditions of the last three days, a moderate southerly lower level flow has resumed to bring increasing moisture. Minimum humidities will recover to above 20-25% on Wednesday, then above 35-40% for Thursday through this weekend. This should mitigate fire weather conditions. However, with drier fuels lingering, they may remain elevated due to gusty afternoon winds. The last few weeks has seen some fires spread in spite of higher humidities. Although, minimum humidities fall again into the 20-30% range on Monday across Val Verde County, winds will be less than 10 mph to keep fire weather conditions only elevated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 82 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 82 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 82 57 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 79 58 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 59 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 82 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 83 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 59 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 82 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 83 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...76