244
FXUS64 KEWX 190635
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
123 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Key messages:

- Seasonable temperatures and heat index values

- Low chances of rain mainly Coastal Plains

The center of the Subtropical Ridge drifts to the lower Mississippi
Valley today and Friday, then to the Ohio Valley this weekend into
next week. Meanwhile, an upper level trough moves onshore the West
Coast today and Friday to over the Great Basin this weekend into
next week. This combined with low pressure in the Plains, makes for
a deepening south to southeast lower to mid level flow over South
Central Texas. The flow allows for a fetch of moisture from the Gulf
of America and Caribbean Sea. Heating and the seabreeze remain the
only forcing mechanisms for convective development. In spite of a
favorable moisture profile, showers and thunderstorms should
generally be isolated and mainly during the afternoon into early
evening hours with peak heating. The Coastal Plains remains the
favored area, though they may be possible as far west as the I-35
corridor, at times. A moist airmass combined with slowly drying soils
and vegetation makes for seasonable temperatures and mildly elevated
heat index values. Breezy/gusty daytime into evening winds should
take some of the edge off the heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

High pressure will be more dominant over Central TX today to preclude
any chances for convection near the terminal sites through 30 hours.
A slightly higher pressure gradient will be over West TX to give DRT
more opportunities to see gusts to around 25 knots. Slightly lower
gusts around 20 knots will be expected along I-35 in the afternoon
and evening where the pressure gradient is not as tight. Still a
steady S/SE breeze can be expected at all areas leading to a
climatologically typical pattern favoring low MVFR stratus between
06Z and 17Z over I-35 and from 11Z to 17Z at DRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  76  95  75 /  10   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  75  95  75 /  10   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  74  93  74 /  10   0  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  73  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  77  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  75  95  75 /   0   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  74  91  72 /  10  10  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  74  93  74 /  10   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  75  93  75 /  10   0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  76  93  75 /  10   0  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  76  94  75 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...18