714
FXUS64 KEWX 010543
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1243 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

- Warm and humid through Monday with low clouds and at least some
patchy fog each morning

- Cold front passage overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning
with a line of rain and storms; a few strong to severe storms are
possible

- A drier airmass arrives mid to late next week behind front with
  cooler mornings and mild, but pleasant afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Winds entering this morning are to remain of light to calm levels
across the region. These light winds along with the warm and muggy
airmass, in addition to lingering saturated soils from the recent
rains, will help result in development and expansion of the low
clouds and areas of fog. The fog could become locally dense in
spots. The most favored regions for fog on the latest short term
guidance is across the valleys of the Hill Country and points east
and northeast of the I-35 corridor from Georgetown through Austin
southward to near New Braunfels and Schertz. The low clouds may
remain stubborn into midday before scattering out during the
afternoon. We`ll also see an increase in high clouds arriving from
the west during the day and this would likely result in continued
mostly cloudy skies across the region. I`ll slightly lower high
temperatures today from the NBM towards the latest short term
guidance, especially in the Hill Country, as a result of the cloud
cover.

Tonight through Monday will see the short lived mid-level ridging,
which is atop of the region today, slide east in response to the
upper level storm system moving across the Intermountain West. The
low-level flow across our area turns more southerly and intensifies
beginning overnight with the nocturnal jet, and continues into
Monday. This should be able to help limit fog development entering
Monday morning but there could be patchy fog in protected valley
locations and where winds are lightest. With a stiffer breeze, the
clouds should be able to mix/scatter out easier and quicker into
Monday afternoon. Monday afternoon looks to be the warmest with
slightly greater sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

The parent storm system across the Intermountain West is then
forecast to advance into the Central Plains from Monday night into
Tuesday. This will sweep a cold front across the region overnight
through Tuesday morning and should exit the Coastal Plain counties
sometime early afternoon. A line of showers and storms (could be
broken) will be expected along the front. There should be sufficient
deep layer shear around 30 to 40 kt range and enough instability
despite the time of day, between 500 and 1000 J/kt to support the
possibility for a few isolated strong to severe storms within that
line. The primary severe hazard would be damaging winds but some
large hail may be possible as well. A level 1 of 5 risk for severe
weather is highlighted for areas along and north/west of the I-35
corridor in the outlook ending at 12Z Tuesday. I would not be
surprised if SPC does expand this risk to include areas farther to
the east in the next update for the outlook that ends at 12Z on
Wednesday. The rain chances will quickly end behind the front as a
northwesterly flow establishes and ushers in drier air across the
region. Wind speeds increase but not like some of our stronger
fronts in the cool season.

The drier airmass results in cooler mornings during mid to late in
the week where the Hill Country dips into the 40s while elsewhere
areas generally fall into the low to mid 50s. Afternoons are to
remain mild but low humidity should keep the weather pleasant with
mostly sunny skies and no rain. The weather becomes more unclear
heading through next weekend with differences within the medium
range guidance on the location and progression of various upper
level features. The latest NBM continues to have low (10-20%) rain
chances entering into the picture as of now with some low-level
moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

All terminals are starting off VFR. MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities will develop around 09Z or 10Z. VFR conditions will
return by around noon. There is some guidance keeping VFR
conditions through the night, but chances seem better for
deteriorating conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              84  67  87  68 /   0   0   0  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  84  66  86  68 /   0   0   0  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  67  86  68 /   0   0   0  40
Burnet Muni Airport            81  65  83  65 /   0   0   0  80
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  68  85  66 /  10   0   0  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  66  84  66 /   0   0   0  80
Hondo Muni Airport             82  67  85  68 /   0   0   0  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  66  86  68 /   0   0   0  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  68  87  69 /   0   0   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  68  85  69 /   0   0   0  40
Stinson Muni Airport           85  68  85  70 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...05