943
FXUS64 KEWX 191717
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1217 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Low chances (15-30%) for showers or storms across the Hill
  Country and southern Edwards Plateau from Sunday night into
  Tuesday.

- Stray chances (5-15%) for rain across the rest of the region
  through next week with most staying dry.

- Above average temperatures continue into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Oppressive heat and the subtropical ridge continues over South
Central TX with more above normal min/max temperatures expected.
Onshore flow will be enhanced slightly over the next 36 hours as
upper troughing advances east from the southern Rockies into West
TX by Sunday. While the ridge axis holds steady over the central
and eastern part of the state, leading to near record maximums
today and Sunday, the western counties could see a bit more wind
and cloud cover to put some space between the daily record high
and what`s in the forecast, especially on Sunday. Overnight lows
will continue to be warm and in the 70s. By Sunday evening the
upper level winds become more westerly over Central TX while a
pocket of mid level moisture comes together over West Central TX,
the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. This might be enough
instability for a few overnight showers and thunderstorms to form
over our NW counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Despite some of the increased troughiness out west, the mid level
ridge holds its ground and corrals the instability over the
higher terrain Monday. The ridge does weaken slightly but it
position directly overhead helps keep temperatures persistent with
those on Sunday. A weak front crosses the Red River Monday and
stalls over West Central TX by Tuesday. This persistent pattern of
weakness to the north continues to bring more instability over
the higher terrain counties with some of the winds aloft pushing
more moisture south Tuesday. This gives most of the forecast area
a chance for some convection, but only isolated coverage
underneath the ridge and without a distinct surface focus. While
it will be nice to see some more areas getting rain, the down side
is we`ll continue to experience heat index values exceeding 100
at times.

The upper ridge appears to be a bit stronger over the area later
in the week, but there is still a good moisture pooling and
onshore flow to promote isolated convection. Outside the 7 day
forecast, deterministic models continue to suggest an upper ridge
breakdown in the 8-10 day time-frame, but only to push it later
with each run. If this trend continues, we may have to endure the
entire month of September under the heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR flight conditions prevail through the period. Expect pockets
of sct to few mid-level cumulus into the evening. Otherwise, some
increasing high clouds arrive from the west after sunset and are
to maintain into Sunday morning. Patchy low clouds are possible
near and after sunrise for the I-35 TAF sites but areal coverage
and confidence is not enough at this time to insert MVFR ceilings
into the TAF. Best probabilities of MVFR ceilings look to remain
east-northeast of KAUS. Winds around 10 kt or less are expected
out of the east-southeast to south-southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75 100  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74 100  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  97  72  97 /   0   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  99  75  99 /   0   0  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  99  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             73  96  72  97 /   0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  99  74 100 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  97  76  98 /   0   0  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           74  99  75 100 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...62