Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
409 FXUS64 KEWX 140600 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 100 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable morning and warm afternoon temperatures continue through early next week. - Weak cold front brings low chances (10-20%) for rain this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Upper level high pressure is currently centered over South Central TX while the surface high has shifted slightly to the east over southern Louisiana. Southeasterly flow should continue resulting in an advection of slightly more moisture for our area that is currently located over the Gulf. Though moisture increases we should still see another cool morning for Tuesday. However, lows should be a touch warmer than yesterday morning with mainly lower 60s east to near 70 west across the Rio Grande Plains. Highs are expected to be similar to Mondays and maybe a few degrees warmer with many areas reaching the lower 90s. Expect a near repeat for Wednesday`s forecast as high pressure slowly pushes off to the east allowing for continued southeasterly flow that eventually becomes predominantly out of the east once the surface high slowly moves away from our area. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The upper level ridge continues to remain nearby through the week centering over or just east of our area. Global models continue to remain in great agreement indicating this high shunting all disturbances to our north and west keeping us dry for the week. There remains just a very low chance of showers for Thursday and Friday across the Coastal Plains however most locations will remain dry. Well above normal high temperatures should continue into this week with highs expected to approach and/or exceed 90 degrees. Things get a little bit murkier for this weekend as Global models have started to back off on our rain chances for our area as a weak cold front tries to make its way into our region from the north. Depending on how much forcing and how far south the front makes it will really dictate weather we see some rain or none at all. This is still quite a few days out so things can and likely will change. However, for now our pattern of warmer afternoon highs and cooler mornings looks to continue through the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Lower level moisture profiles show potential for MVFR CIGS going into Tuesday morning. HREF probabilities of 40-80% favor the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, including KDRT with less than 20% at the I-35 sites. Have maintained the CIGS at KDRT and FEW-SCT at the I-35 sites. Otherwise, VFR flying through this forecast. E to SE winds of 5 to 15 KTs will prevail with the higher speeds at KDRT. However, light and VRBL is expected at the I-35 sites early morning and overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 62 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 62 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 90 70 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 90 62 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 61 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 61 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...04