Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
754 FXUS64 KEWX 011436 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 936 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .UPDATE... The Flood Watch was re-oriented and extended to include Kinney, Maverick, Dimmit, and Zavala counties where ongoing activity and additional activity through afternoon with daytime heating may result in locally heavy rain with rates in the 1 to 2 inch range and isolated flooding in the watch area. Elsewhere, the Flood Watch was cancelled as concerns for heavy rain and flooding has lowered. However, isolated shower and storm activity could still remain possible with heating of the day. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch remains in effect for some parts of South Central Texas through noon today - Locally heavy rain possible across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande but not limited to these areas - Dry weather returns Tuesday with rain chances showing up for next weekend && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)... Area Doppler radars are showing light rain across parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and Val Verde county as of 1 AM CDT Monday. Some hires models continue this trend while others show moderate to locally heavy rain later this morning into the afternoon. The latest GFS and NAM solutions keep shower and thunderstorm activity across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande for most of today (Monday). For areas across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains, things look drier, however, a few moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon. Based on latest weather guidance, decided to cancel several counties from the Flood Watch while kept those along and west of I-35 corridor through noon today. The frontal boundary responsible of Sunday`s rain is now across the coastal plains and extends into the Rio Grande. There is little movement to the tail end of the frontal boundary and remains over the Rio Grande through Tuesday. Over these locations is where the best chances for rain remain. Otherwise, dry weather conditions are expected over most areas on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... Dry weather conditions prevail Tuesday night through Friday. By the upcoming weekend, rain chances return as an upper level disturbance moves across the local area according to the GFS solution while the ECMWF keeps dry conditions. Time will tell as we get closer to the weekend and get hires data to identify the potential for rain. Daily temperatures are likely to range from the lower to upper 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION (15Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... SHRA/TSRA have redeveloped over parts of our area. Have PROB30s at KDRT for this morning and at the I-35 sites for late morning through this afternoon. Restrictions for CIGs/VSBYs have become more isolated early this morning. As a result, VFR will prevail today through Tuesday, except brief restrictions are possible early this morning and in SHRA/TSRA. Light winds of 8 KTs will prevail and mainly from the N to E. However, wind gusts to 40 KTs, as well as erratic directions are expected near SHRA/TSRA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 72 95 72 96 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 95 71 95 / 10 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 96 70 98 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 69 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 98 75 99 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 95 71 98 / 10 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 96 70 98 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 96 73 98 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 97 75 99 / 10 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Dimmit-Kinney- Maverick-Zavala. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...04