Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
617 FXUS64 KEWX 131741 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1241 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable morning and warm afternoon temperatures continue through the week. - Weak cold front over the weekend brings a low chance (20%) for rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 The ridge aloft is forecast to continue to strengthen into Tuesday, centering across northeast Texas. H5 heights of 594dm are indicated, at the 99th percentile to near max values for this time of year. This will lead to continued warm afternoon temperatures Tuesday. Southeast low level flow continues, and a higher pool of moisture, currently across the western Gulf, is forecast to move into South Texas tonight and up into the Winter Garden and Rio Grande regions on Tuesday. A stray shower or two can`t be ruled out Tuesday west of I-37 and south of U.S. 90, but almost all locations across South-Central Texas will remain dry. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 The upper level ridge is forecast weaken Wednesday through Thursday and shift northeast. At the same time, an inverted upper level trough slides beneath it on Wednesday into South Texas then will be absorbed into a larger trough moving out of the western CONUS and into the Plains Thursday through Saturday. We can`t rule out very low chances (10%) for isolated showers Thursday and Friday across the Coastal Plains, but most locations will remain dry. The trough is forecast to drag the dry line into the southern Edwards Plateau late Friday afternoon and a weak cold front into the region sometime Saturday or Saturday night. There is a large spread in ensembles guidance on timing and rain chances along this front. At this time we will continue with low (20%) chances for isolated showers Saturday and Saturday night across portions of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor, and Sunday across the Coastal Plains. There is also a very low chance (10-20%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms early Friday evening across Val Verde county, closer to the dryline. Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures continue Wednesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Fair weather cumulus is expected this afternoon with a few concentrated areas making for a broken sky. Mostly clear skies should resume this evening, but a few more patches of high clouds could appear from the west. SE winds of 5-8 knots will turn light and perhaps more easterly tonight into early Tuesday. This could favor a MVFR ceiling for a few hours at DRT while the low clouds stay mainly west of I-35. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 64 92 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 93 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 92 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 62 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 89 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 62 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 67 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...76 LONG TERM....76 AVIATION...18