811
FXUS64 KEWX 261722
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The upper level ridge remains centered northwest of the area today.
Outside of a stray shower or two across the Coastal Plains, most of
the area will remain dry and hot today. Far to the north of the
area, we will be watching for a potential complex of storms this
afternoon moving south around the ridge through Arkansas. Outflow
from these storms may continue south and southwest tonight and into
early Thursday morning through northeast Texas. We will keep an eye
out for the possible outflow making into into the northeast forecast
area overnight and Thursday. The vast majority of the guidance
dissipates the convection well northeast of the area, however a few
HREF members generate isolated showers and storms across Central
Texas and the northeast forecast area during the day on Thursday.
Global models indicate the ridge building back east over the area
Thursday, which would help to limit this possibility.

We saw more locations near and east of I-35 reach heat advisory
criteria yesterday. With temperatures at or slightly warmer today,
we will continue to see locations near the I-35 corridor and across
the Coastal Plains into heat advisory criteria this afternoon. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for this area. In addition, a few
locations along the Rio Grande may get close to criteria, and we
will issue a Special Weather Statement for this area. Slightly
warmer temperatures are forecast Thursday as heights increase
with the aforementioned ridge building east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Few changes for the long term forecast as the Subtropical High
remains more or less parked over the southern CONUS. South Central
Texas will remain on the southern periphery, with some very low
chances of showers and storms over the Coastal Plains most
afternoons. Ridging should build a bit more over the northeastern
part of the state of Texas by this weekend, allowing flow to resume
out of the east in the mid-levels. This should result in those
aforementioned stray showers/storms over the Coastal Plains this
weekend, especially on Sunday. Beyond that, the ridge builds back
westward and shuts off any sort of sea breeze shower/storm activity.
Temperatures will remain near normals for late June/early July,
mainly in the mid to upper 90s and mornings in the mid to upper 70s.
Heat indices in the 105-110 range will be common, and additional
heat advisories may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Currently the San Antonio terminals are on the cusp of VFR ceilings
and they should be VFR by the start of the this TAF period. AUS and
DRT are both VFR and once the San Antonio area gets there all
airports will remain in that category through the afternoon and
evening. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue into the
evening. We expect that only the San Antonio airports will see MVFR
ceilings develop again tonight. There is a chance that they remain
VFR, but we think the ceilings will move in. AUS and DRT will stay
VFR through the entire period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79 100  78  98 /   0  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  98  77  97 /   0  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  98  78  98 /   0  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            78  99  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           82 103  81 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        78  99  77  97 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  97  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  95  77  95 /  10  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       79  98  79  97 /   0  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           78  99  79  98 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-
Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...05