642
FXUS64 KEWX 251919
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
219 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies have prevailed into this
afternoon with spotty isolated tropical showers moving from the
Victoria Crossroads northward into our coastal plain counties.
Isolated activity remains possible into early this evening. The
activity may also try get a little more inland push toward the
evening pending the strength and location of the sea breeze. Any
activity quickly dissipates towards and after nightfall. Most
locations will remain rain free.

Heat remains the main impact to South-Central Texas in the short
term as the heat indices are expected to peak in the 105 to 110
degree range each afternoon for locations mainly near and east of
the I-35 corridor. Latest changes with the Heat Advisory are
including the addition of Frio County and extension of the advisory
to cover through Wednesday evening. Please continue to practice and
promote heat safety.

Tonight trends very warm and muggy where the overnight lows are to
only dip into the mid to upper 70s and near 80 degrees at Del Rio.
Low stratus will develop late overnight into the morning but quickly
erodes to mostly sunny to partly sunny skies by the afternoon. Most
locations stay rain free through Wednesday but an isolated spotty
shower or two could again get into Lavaca or Dewitt counties. The
flow aloft does also become more northerly as the ridge center slips
slightly more to the west. Models are showing a possible convective
complex moving southward out of Arkansas into Wednesday
evening/night within this flow. The vast majority of the guidance do
keep the region dry but we`ll need to still keep eye out for any
possible outflow associated with this complex as a few outlier HREF
members do suggest some decaying activity could approach our region
sometime Wednesday evening/night. I`ll keep the forecast PoPs for
now at 5 percent or less for this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The subtropical ridge will be the dominant weather feature for the
long term period. It will suppress most convection through the
period and the heat will be the main concern. Under this stagnant
pattern temperatures will be mainly steady. Highs will be mainly in
the 90s with some triple digits along the Rio Grande. Lows will be
mostly in the 70s with 80-81 along the Rio Grande. Afternoon
dewpoints will determine if we need any heat products. Right now
every day looks close, but not obvious. We will likely be looking at
day by day decisions. Generally, the mostly likely area that will
need heat products will be the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains.

While we will mainly be rain free through the period, there will be
couple of chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms when the
upper ridge weakens slightly. Friday and Sunday we`ll see slight rain
chance. Friday the area will be the Coastal Plains into the San
Antonio area. Sunday it will be the Coastal Plains out to the
southern Rio Grande region. Friday the probability looks a little
better, but we still expect most places to stay rain free.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR flight conditions prevail at the area TAF sites throughout the
afternoon into this evening with few to sct fair weather cumulus.
Any spotty shower activity through early evening should stay to the
east of the sites within the coastal plain counties. Stratus with
MVFR ceilings will redevelop at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT and
KSSF) overnight into Wednesday morning. KDRT remains VFR but some
scattered low clouds could reach the site around/after sunrise. All
sites should see returning VFR flight conditions into and through
Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate winds prevail from out of the
east-southeast to south-southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78  98  78  99 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  78  97  76  98 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  97  76  98 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            77  96  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 102  81 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  96  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        77  96  75  96 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  95  77  94 /   0  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  97  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-
Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Brady