496
FXUS64 KEWX 181810
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
110 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms during the rest
  of today to focus primarily along and to the west of the
  I-10/I-37 corridor.

- Low rain chances (15-25%) across portions of the region Sunday into
  Tuesday.

- Above average temperatures continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A cluster of showers with the occasional storm occurred for this
morning in a corridor mainly concentrated from Rockport/Corpus
Christi into portions of Bexar County. This is associated with a
region of higher moisture, with PWATs that exceed 2 inches. This
afternoon should see this region of higher moisture continue to
slide west with isolated to widely scattered showers and storm
activity primarily focusing along and west of the I-10/I-37
corridor. The activity fades and dissipates into and through the
evening hours. Drier air follows quickly on the heels of that
corridor of higher moisture as seen on the water vapor satellite
imagery across Louisiana into northeast Texas. PWATs across that
area has fallen to near 1 inch or less. The leading edge of the
drier air reaches our northern/northeastern most portions of our
region later this afternoon into this evening. This dry air is
expected to continue to push farther into the region and remain
settled across South-Central Texas for Saturday through Saturday
night, yielding to a dry forecast.

Mid-level ridging remaining centered across Northeast Texas will
keep the temperature forecast persistent with continued above
average temperatures. Afternoon highs will remain in the mid to
upper 90s for the majority, outside from the cooler Hill Country
terrain and the lucky few that may see some slight relief with
today`s rain. Conditions stay warm at night with morning low
temperatures mostly in the low to mid 70s. Cloud cover should be
slightly greater in areal coverage from today into tonight in
comparison to Saturday into Saturday night. South-southeasterly
breezes generally prevail with higher gusts at times from the
afternoon through the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Late this weekend and early next week, the mid-level ridging is
forecast to weaken/buckle on it`s western flank with some bits of
shortwave energy (vorticity) advancing through portions of West
Texas and the Texas panhandle. This along with just enough of
sufficient area moisture may help generate small (10-20%) chances
for rain, primarily focused in the Hill Country/Southern Edwards
Plateau to areas along the Rio Grande. Guidance then shows the
ridging will once again strengthen across the region from mid to
late week, which likely is to help to suppress the rain chances
across the region through that time frame.

Despite slightly weaker 500 mb heights on Sunday into early next
week, area temperatures don`t look to budge much and stay above
average. Afternoon highs are to persistently hold in the mid to
upper 90s for most while a few locations occasionally reach up
towards the triple digit mark. Heat indices are to run around or
slightly above the ambient temperature, but peak values should
remain shy of the heat advisory criteria with enough sufficient
mixing each afternoon. The overnights are to remain persistently
warm as well, with most locations seeing the morning lows hold
within the low to mid 70s. The Hill Country may be the slight
exception where a few more upper 60 readings look to trickle in
through mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Isolated to scattered convection continues from the coastal plains
into portions of the I-35 corridor near KSAT and KSSF early this
afternoon. Based on radar trends, we have added a TEMPO group to
both KSAT and KSSF for SHRA over the next couple hours. Models
then show the better chance for convection slowly moving westward
into the Rio Grande plains through early evening. Low cloud
development overnight into Saturday morning is favored between
SAT/SSF and DRT, so we will keep MVFR cigs in the forecast for
these sites, with only a mention of SCT low clouds at AUS. Drier
air moving in on Saturday will likely prevent convection from
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  98  78  99 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  98  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  97  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...Platt