724
FXUS64 KEWX 161713
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1213 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Low rain chances in the coastal plains through late week,
spreading further inland on Thursday.

- Above average temperatures continue through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Upper level ridging that extends from the southeast states into
the local area continues to dominate through the short term
period. Slightly cooler temperatures (a few degrees less than
Tuesday over some locations) are forecast for Wednesday across
south-central Texas, however, still above normal values. Forecast
highs ranging from the mid to upper 90s and up to 103 degrees
across the Rio Grande plains. Heat index values will be elevated
during the afternoon reaching the 100 to 107 over most areas. A
brief moment of higher values can`t be ruled out across the
coastal plains in the afternoon, however, between clouds and
chances for rain over those areas, I have decided to hold off on
issuing a Heat Advisory.

By Thursday, humidity levels increase with the passage of a weak low
to mid level disturbance. There are isolated to scattered chances of
rain (20 to 50 percent) across the coastal plains and areas along
the I-35 corridor. Forecast highs for Thursday looking around the
mid to upper 90s and up to 100.expected but there is a low chance of
showers expected about 15 m


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

By Friday, drier conditions are forecast to push across the local
area throughout the day with limited shower activity across the
coastal plains where activity is favored. The upper level high moves
back into our area over the weekend to limit any shower activity. An
upper level disturbance is forecast to move westward across the Gulf
states over the weekend into early next week. Latest guidance
showing this feature slowing and staying across the Gulf northern
water and then moving to the southwest as an inverted trough. So,
confidence is low as far as how much rain will get next week.
However, our confidence is moderate to high when it comes to high
temperatures remaining above normal climate values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR flight conditions prevail from this afternoon into tonight
with mostly fair weather cumulus and increasing high level cloud
cover. A region of low clouds then establish closer to sunrise
and could result in some MVFR ceilings for a time at the San
Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF). Low clouds may approach KDRT
mid-morning but will elect to keep the areal coverage in the
scattered range for now. VFR conditions return to all the area
sites by midday. The coastal plains is most favored for any
isolated to scattered showers and storm activity for this
afternoon and Thursday afternoon. We`ll monitor if any activity
is able to approach the I-35 corridor and the areal terminals
but confidence is too low to insert within the TAF package
during this time. East-southeasterly breezes trend into this
evening with gusts at times in excess of 20 kts with speeds then
diminishing after midnight. Winds then turn more easterly and
increase slightly into and through Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 100  76  99 /   0  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  99  75  99 /   0  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  99  77  97 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  99  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  98  74  97 /   0  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  73  98 /   0  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  98  75  98 /   0  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  98  77  97 /  10  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77 100  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...62