477
FXUS64 KEWX 251858
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
158 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Key Message:

- Increasing shower and storm coverage into this evening mainly
  along and east of the I-35 Corridor.

Troughing out in the Western U.S with monsoonal moisture continues
while the eastern U.S sits beneath an expansive ridge of high
pressure. This leaves us sandwiched between the two features thus
giving us continued chances for daily showers and storms each
afternoon. Looking at radar and visible satellite imagery we see
that showers are already starting to pop for this afternoon. We
expect these showers and thunderstorms to eventually increase in
coverage with most activity expected to wane by sunset due to the
loss of daytime heating. Tonight expect mostly cloudy skies with
lighter winds with lows in the mid 70s. Tomorrow should be slightly
drier, though chances of storms remain mainly in the Coastal Plains
once again waning by sunset as the ridge creeps slowly westward and
covers more of our area. As such temperatures are expected to be a
touch warmer as well with highs in the low to mid 90s. Tomorrow
night expect partly cloudy skies with lows once again in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Key Messages:

- A warning trend is on the way for the weekend into next week

- Saharan Air Layer arrives over the weekend and brings dry and dusty
  conditions across the local area to make hazy skies through the
  period

Slow warming trend begins Friday into the weekend and continues into
next week. Highs will range from the mid to upper 90s most areas
with a few locations getting into the 100 to 101 along the Rio
Grande over the weekend. By early next, highs are expected to
increase a degree or two of those over the weekend and therefore
more locations are likely to reach the 100 degree mark especially
across the Austin area and vicinity.

On top of the heat, a Saharan Air Layer is forecasted to affect most
of South Central Texas starting on Saturday and continues into next
week. Therefore, hazy skies are expected through the period as this
dry and dusty airmass moves across the local area. Showers and
thunderstorms will be limited to the coastal plains and areas east
of Interstate 35 with the help of the afternoon sea breeze.
Otherwise, dry weather conditions are expected for most periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Tricky forecast for this afternoon with uncertainty how far west
these showers make it. Showers are already showing up on radar just
west of KAUS. Best guess is these showers and possible thunderstorms
continue developing and moving northwestward through the afternoon.
Added PROB30 from now until 21Z for KAUS with a prevailing briefly
before another chance of TSRAs again from 21Z to 01Z. For KSAT and
KSSF have PROB30s from 22Z to 01Z for TSRAs. Will keep monitoring and
amend as needed. For KDRT expect VFR conditions with prevailing and
at times gusty SE winds. MVFR conditions return for all I-35 sites
around 08Z for KAUS and 10Z for KSSF and KSAT with VFR conditions
back by 16Z for all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  93  74  97 /  10  20   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  93  72  96 /  10  20   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  72  95 /  10  20   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  91  72  94 /   0  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  93  72  95 /  10  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  91  72  93 /  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  93  72  95 /  10  20   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  91  72  93 /  10  40   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  91  74  93 /   0  20   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           74  92  74  95 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...17
Aviation...CJM