167
FXUS64 KEWX 261836
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
136 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Summer-like temperatures continue into early next week.

- Low chance for isolated storms Sunday afternoon and evening over
  the Hill Country.

- A Pacific cold front may bring widespread rain mid to late next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Upper-level ridging has reestablished itself over the RGV based on
the morning 12Z soundings and should continue its southwestward
drift through Sunday. Unseasonably hot conditions continue. A mid-
level trough is noted over the Panhandle and Texas High Plains
region. The nearby ridge and accompanying subsidence should prevent
isolated showers/storms from moving into our area, though a few
fleeting showers could temporarily drift into the southern Edwards
Plateau on their way to fizzling out this evening.

South-Central Texas remains under southwestern heel of broadly
higher pressures over the Eastern US, so warm and humid air
continues to cycle through the region. Highs Sunday will again be in
the mid to upper 90s for most, perhaps a few degrees higher than
today as a warmer airmass over West Texas orients closer our area.
By Sunday afternoon, the upper-level wind will shift towards
northwesterlies and this setup is slightly more favorable to a few
isolated showers or storms entering or developing over the southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country Sunday afternoon/evening. As is
typical in these conditions, the warm weather could aid storms in
producing locally gusty winds. A few of these storms could reach the
Austin area, though the I-35 corridor is likely to be on the eastern
edge of this activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Next week starts off with the same summer-like heat and mostly dry
conditions due to the nearby influence of the upper-level ridge.
However, the ridge will start to weaken as a trough and accompanying
Pacific cold front approaches from the west. This clash of weather
features is forecast deliver a shift from the regionally monotonous
summer weather, including the potential for widespread rain and
cooler temperatures during the latter half of the week.

Today, that trough is taking shape over the northern Pacific, but it
won`t be until about mid/late tomorrow when the core of the trough
arrives on the Pacific coast and is sampled in upper-air soundings.
Models have gradually come to a little more agreement regarding the
timing of the trough as it moves over the southwestern US, but there
is still some divergence in the models regarding its behavior as it
enters Texas that could be pivotal in assessing the mid to late week
weather here.

Regardless of timing, there is good confidence that the trough will
pull ample amounts of tropical Pacific moisture into the
southwestern and central US, and this will set up an opportunity of
widespread rain over Texas. So far, ensemble trends in the 500mb
heights over the western US and the progression of the trough itself
are consistent with favoring a slower-moving trough compared to
earlier model outputs. This has caused the most favorable period of
rainfall for South-Central Texas to shift slightly later in the
forecast. The window of opportunity for widespread rains still
stretches from early Wednesday through Friday, though the highest
chances in the long-range grand ensemble have started to center
around Thursday.

Rain chances should begin before the arrival of the Pacific front as
moist southerly flow accelerates during its approach. However, the
front will act as a focus for higher rain chances. With models
suggesting that the trough will weaken and slow down over the
Central Plains late in the week, the front may be slow-moving and
there is some potential that it could linger over our area and
extend rain chances into Saturday. PWATs during this period are
forecast to increase with the GEFS, ENS, and GEPS ensembles all
showing mean values of around 1.8-2.1" (near or over the 95th
percentile), underscoring the transport of moist Pacific air. Taken
altogether, the setup is worth monitoring for the chance of heavy
rain near or within the region, and the WPC has started to highlight
the potential for rains capable of flash flooding at some point
mid/late next week over South-Central Texas.

The sluggish nature of the trough and continued moist inflow
suggests we won`t be seeing a sharp plunge in temperatures from the
Pacific, but the cloud cover, rain, and post-frontal air mixed in
will be sufficient to drop temperatures towards near normal
territory. The current blend of models has highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s late next week. However, confidence in temperatures is
low due to uncertainties in the frontal timing, strength, and the
inherent variability of rain-cooled air. The drop in overnight
lows is not expected to be as steep due to the humid air, but will
likely see some decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Onshore flow will generally remain under 12 knots through the period
with calm winds near I-35 terminals overnight. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail, though persistence would hint at some patchy
MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning. With little signal in models for any
lower cloud decks, kept skies BKN250 for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  99  74  99 /   0  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  99  74  99 /   0  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  95  72  95 /   0  20  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  99  76  99 /   0   0  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  98  74  97 /   0  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  98  72  98 /   0  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  99  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  96  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...27