772
FXUS64 KEWX 051834
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1234 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Key Messages:

- Warm and humid with near daily record highs Thursday

- Overnight/morning low stratus and patchy fog expected

The surface observations are matching forecast expectations where
clouds are remaining a bit more stubborn across the region through
at least midday today in comparison to yesterday. Ceilings should
rise and clouds gradually break from mid to late afternoon. This
should temper daytime highs slightly and help to keep the daily
record high temperatures safe for today. Isolated showers have
developed across Karnes to Lavaca counties over the past hour or
two. I will keep a low (10 to 20%) chance of showers across these
locations through this afternoon. This may be from the influence of
a weak upper level low advancing eastward across Deep South Texas
today. To the north of this low, the upper level pattern remains
rather zonal with little to no influence to the sensible weather.

A light to moderate south to southeasterly flow will continue to
supply the unseasonably warm and humid airmass across the region
through the short term period. Low stratus and patchy fog develops
from the overnight into Thursday morning and again Thursday night
into early Friday. With a little more sun forecast on Thursday
afternoon with the clouds mixing out a little faster than today,
should allow for afternoon highs to climb into the low to mid 80s
across most locations. This will approach the daily record high
temperatures at several climate sites. Details on the records could
be found within the climate section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Key Messages:

- Muggy conditions and near record to record warmth Friday and Saturday

- Rain chances increase Monday and Tuesday with a slow-moving cold front,
  followed by cooler and more seasonable temperatures

Heading into the weekend, steady southerly to southwesterly winds
will keep unseasonably warm temperatures throughout South-Central
Texas Friday and Saturday. Each day will likely start out with low
stratus and some patchy fog before stable dry mid-level air aloft
breaks up the clouds by the afternoon. With dew points above 60F for
most areas outside of our westernmost counties, Friday and Saturday
will feel more like a muggy late spring than early February. Morning
lows Friday and Saturday should remain in the low to mid-60s. Highs
Friday are expected to reach at least the mid-80s across most of the
region, and slightly drier air aloft Saturday will support an even
more aggressive push of daytime highs to near 90F along the I-35
corridor with higher temperatures over the Winter Garden area and
Rio Grande Plains. Both record high daily maximum and minimum
temperatures may be broken in some areas.

A cold front will begin to push south over the Great Plains Saturday
night into Sunday. However, this front will struggle to make much
southward progress without northerly winds aloft to strongly drive
the dense cold air into our area. With low-level winds continuing to
hold southerly, this will likely result in the front stalling out
through at least Monday. Models disagree on the exact placement of
the front, but given the lack of upper-level support, it seems more
likely that the front will settle either in the northern half of our
region or just to the north, gradually becoming more diffuse. The
front should however provide just enough lift to generate more cloud
cover to keep high temperatures near to below 80F north of I-10.
Elsewhere, sparser cloud cover should bring temperatures down a few
notches, but conditions will still be unseasonably warm.

Monday into Tuesday, a shortwave trough will approach our area from
the west, marking a transition towards a more active weather period
next week. This should eventually provide more conducive upper-level
winds to push cooler air into our region from the north in the form
of a second reinforcing cold front. Ahead of the trough, divergence
aloft with the front remaining nearby will support better lift and
better rain chances. Warmer temperatures aloft and more persistent
low-level cloud cover will tend to limit instability and keep most
of the initial precip in the form of light showers ahead of the
front, but the approaching cold front could set off some deeper
convection with accompanying thunder closer to the frontal boundary.
Rain chances are highest over the Hill Country eastward, with the
best chances currently Monday night through Tuesday morning. Ample
disagreement remains with the timing of this front with the upper-
level pattern not conducive to getting the front through briskly,
but cooler air should spread across our region by Wednesday with
temperatures more in line with seasonal averages. Depending on
frontal timing, low temperatures Wednesday morning could dip into
the 30s for the Hill Country should the front advance faster. Large-
scale troughing should hold steady over the western/central US
through mid-week, so there may be additional rounds of precipitation
following the frontal passage towards and beyond the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Ongoing MVFR ceilings across the region will improve to VFR levels
by the mid to late afternoon as ceilings rise and clouds slowly but
gradually break with time. The VFR conditions persist into tonight
before deteriorating overnight into Thursday morning. MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibility will generally prevail but a brief chance
for LIFR conditions could occur after sunrise Thursday. Conditions
then improve a little faster on Thursday with the return of VFR
conditions by early afternoon at the 30 hr TAF sites (KAUS and
KSAT). A light to moderate south to southeasterly flow continues
through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 120 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2025

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* INDICATES EARLIER YEARS ALSO; THE MOST RECENT TIE IS LISTED)

         02/05    02/06   02/07   02/08

AUS 83/2008* 81/2017 88/2017 86/2017
ATT 82/2008* 83/1925 86/2017 87/2017
SAT 85/2008  83/1925 86/2017 88/2017
DRT 86/1953  87/1911 93/1937 90/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  82  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  81  63  84 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  82  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            63  82  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           62  86  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             62  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  81  63  84 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  82  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       63  82  64  84 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           64  83  64  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...Brady