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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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719 FXUS64 KEWX 261917 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 217 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The upper level ridge remains centered northwest of the area this afternoon. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf is producing southeasterly winds across South Central Texas. A warm, moist airmass remains in place. Temperatures are in the upper 80s and lower 90s and dewpoints are in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Heat indices range from the middle 90s to 107. A Heat Advisory remains in effect this afternoon for the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains. There is a line of thunderstorms over northeastern TX moving toward the south. Most of the hi-res models keep these storms east of our CWA as it approaches later this evening, but there are a couple of solutions that bring some storms into our eastern counties. The solutions that keep this activity east of us seem more likely to us and we have left out any mention of convection this evening. The overall weather pattern will not change significantly during the short term. Tonight will be partly to mostly cloudy and temperatures will be warm. Lows Thursday morning will be about the same as this morning. Daytime Thursday will see a bit less cloudiness and temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than today. Most places will still be in the middle to upper 90s with triple digits along the Rio Grande. Dewpoints Thursday afternoon will be in the 70s again sending heat indices to 105 to 110 and we have issued a Heat Advisory for the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains. Thursday night should be a near repeat of tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The 500 mb heights may lower a tad entering Friday as the mid-level ridge repositions while a weak inverted trough also advances into northern portions of coastal Mexico and Deep South Texas. This may help to promote a few tropical showers and/or isolated sea breeze convection to advance inland into our southeastern most coastal plain counties. Elsewhere, conditions are to remain hot and humid under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and with a rain free forecast. The mid-level ridge centered over North Texas towards the Arklatex region will then restrengthen through the weekend into the 595 to 598 dm range. The center of that ridge then slowly slides eastward early to middle of next week. With our region under the influence of this ridge, it`s subsidence will keep area rain chances nil. The only exception may be Sunday across our southern most locations as the far northern periphery of moisture associated with a tropical wave advancing across the western Caribbean through the Bay of Campeche and into northern Mexico. Given the model trends and the typical setup with the stronger ridging to the north, have elected to lower PoPs into the slight category compared to the latest NBM output. The afternoon high temperatures start to gradually nudge upwards later this weekend and towards the middle of next week as the mid- level ridge strengthens. However, with greater diurnal mixing and drying soil moistures, the surface dew points will likely start mixing out more efficiently through each afternoon. Despite the higher afternoon daytime highs, including locations topping out around or above 100 degrees, could see the heat indices remain of near or perhaps lower than the peak heat indices seen today or recently with those very humid dew point values. Overnight lows should become slightly more seasonable as well with mostly clear skies trending more often into the overnight hours with the lower dew points persisting through the evening hours. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Currently the San Antonio terminals are on the cusp of VFR ceilings and they should be VFR by the start of the this TAF period. AUS and DRT are both VFR and once the San Antonio area gets there all airports will remain in that category through the afternoon and evening. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue into the evening. We expect that only the San Antonio airports will see MVFR ceilings develop again tonight. There is a chance that they remain VFR, but we think the ceilings will move in. AUS and DRT will stay VFR through the entire period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 79 98 79 98 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 98 76 97 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 78 98 76 98 / 10 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 78 98 77 97 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 82 102 81 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 98 77 97 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 78 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 98 76 97 / 10 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 96 78 95 / 10 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 79 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 79 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays- Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays- Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...05