Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 171759
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TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-191800-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1259 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

Dry conditions continue across the western half of the region.
After a brief rainfall event on May 3rd-4th, rainfall has been
lacking in most areas. With the lack of rainfall temperatures have
begun their steady rise to late spring and early summer levels.
Many locations over the western third of south central Texas have
reported less than one inch of rainfall since January 1, 2018.
There is still some hope that rainfall may increase as we remain
in the wettest portion of the year. Lake and reservoirs remain in
fairly good shape, but increasing evaporation rates and the
expected increase in water consumption could lead to significant
drops in the levels over the next several months without rainfall
to provide inflows. Most locations are expected to begin
implementing the first stages of water restrictions due to the
direr than average conditions. Five counties currently have
county-wide burn bans due to continuing dry conditions. Several
counties have seen grass and brush fires the last few months and
officials are expecting additional fires if wetting rains are not
observed.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting ENSO neutral
conditions from now into the summer. Even though La Nina and El
Nino events have significant impacts across South Texas, other
circulations across the globe help drive weather patterns too, so
we should not just be looking at one pattern, but others as well
to potentially provide rainfall for the region.

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) valid May 15th and issued on May
17th indicated drought conditions have improved slightly across
many locations across South Central Texas. Abnormally dry (D0) to
Extreme (D3) drought conditions were present across South Central
Texas. The driest locations were located along and to the west of
Interstate 35.

Currently 64 percent of the state is in Abnormally dry (D0) to
Exceptional (D4) drought. The eastern and northeastern parts of
the state currently have no drought.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

Fire danger was low to moderate. There were isolated areas of high
fire danger right along the Rio Grande. During periods were
wetting rainfall is not observed then fire danger threats will
continue to increase.

As of May 17th, there were 5 counties with county-wide burn bans
in effect across south Central Texas. There were 28 counties with
no burn bans currently in effect.

Counties that currently have burn bans in place:

Dimmit
Kinney
Travis
Val Verde
Zavala

Counties currently without county-wide burn bans:

Atascosa
Bandera
Bastrop
Bexar
Blanco
Burnet
Caldwell
Comal
DeWitt
Edwards
Fayette
Frio
Gillespie
Gonzales
Guadalupe
Hays
Karnes
Kendall
Kerr
Llano
Lavaca
Lee
Maverick
Medina
Real
Uvalde
Williamson
Wilson

Residents in all counties should contact their local city or
county web site, Judge`s office or Fire Marshall before deciding
to conduct any type of outdoor burning as burn bans may be issued
before the next update of this drought statement.

The May 16th County Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) showed the
following KBDI values:

0-200        200-300     300-400      400-500     500-600

Burnet        Bandera   Caldwell     Atascosa    Dimmit
Medina        Bastrop    Edwards      DeWitt      Maverick
              Bexar      Frio         Dimmit
              Blanco     Gonzales     Karnes
              Comal      Guadalupe    Lavaca
              Fayette    Kerr         Uvalde
              Gillespie  Real         Val Verde
              Hays       Williamson   Zavala
              Kendall    Wilson
              Lee
              Llano
              Travis

The Texas Forest Service uses the KBDI as a means for relating
current and recent weather conditions to potential or expected
fire behavior. The KBDI is a numerical index calculated daily for
each county. Each number is an estimate of the amount of
precipitation, in hundredths of an inch, needed to bring the soil
back to saturation. The index ranges from zero to 800, with zero
representing a saturated soil and 800 a completely dry soil.
Remember, that fire danger can change quickly from one day to
another as winds and relative humidity vary.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

The Texas Crop and Weather Report issued by Texas A&M on May
8th reported weather was favorable for rangeland and pastures with
a small amount of rainfall received. More rain was forecast.
Livestock remained in good condition. Recent rains will help
livestock and wildlife water availability. Cattle prices were low,
and producers were hoping recent rains will help prices. Rust was
in wheat. Peaches looked good. Many hay fields were fertilized in
anticipation of rain.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

The next few days are expected to see little precipitation and
above average temperatures. Through the end of May we may see
sporadic rainfall, but most locations will likely remain dry with
temperatures above average.

Precipitation from January 1, 2018 to midnight May 16, 2018 and
departure from normal:

                   2018       Normal  Departure from   Percent of
                                          Normal      Normal to Date
Austin Mabry       9.90       11.19       -1.29          88%
Austin Bergstrom  11.10       11.72       -0.62          95%
San Antonio        7.34        9.86       -2.52          74%
Del Rio            0.83        5.69       -4.86          15%

For May to date, Del Rio has received 0.50 of an inch of rain.
This is 0.80 of an inch below the normal of 1.30 inches. The
average temperature for May to date is 80.6 degrees. This is
3.4 degrees above the normal of 77.2 degrees.

For May to date, San Antonio International Airport has received
0.77 of an inch of rain. This is 1.13 inches below the normal of
1.90 inches. The average temperature at the San Antonio
International Airport for May to date is 78.1 degrees. This is
3.0 degrees above the normal of 75.1 degrees.

For May to date, Austin Mabry has received 3.70 inches of
rain. This is 1.60 inches above the normal of 2.10 inches.
The average temperature at Austin Mabry for May to date is 78.2
degrees. This is 3.3 degrees above the normal of 74.9 degrees.

For May to date, Austin Bergstrom International Airport has
received 2.60 inches of rain. This is 0.44 of an inch above
the normal of 2.16 inches. The average temperature at the Austin
Bergstrom International Airport for May to date is 76.8
degrees. This is 3.6 degrees above the normal of 73.2 degrees.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook
issued May 16th and valid May 24th through May 30th was
indicating stronger signals for above average temperatures and
stronger signals for below average precipitation.

The longer range outlook for Jun 2018 through August 2018 created
on May 17th was indicating stronger signals for above average
temperatures and near average precipitation.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

After one late April and one early May rainfall event the majority
of the region has been on the dry side. May and June are normally
a couple of the wettest months of the year. The continued lack of
rainfall has caused drought conditions to continue and grow worse
in areas across the Rio Grande plains.

The 7 day stream flow averages for the Pecos, Nueces, Medina, San
Antonio middle Colorado and Upper Guadalupe were normal (25-75
percent. The Rio Grande, Devils, Frio, Lower Guadalupe and lower
Colorado were seeing below normal (10-24 percent) stream flows.
The upper Guadalupe, Devils, Pecos and upper Guadalupe river
basins were reporting much below normal (less than 10 percent)
stream flows.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF May 17th...

Below is a list of reservoirs with the latest elevations and
normal pools.

              Conservation Pool    Latest Elevation    Difference
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

Lake Amistad        1117                1087.8            -29.2
Medina Lake         1064.2              1044.3            -19.9
Canyon Lake          909                 905.4             -3.6
Lake Georgetown      791                 779.8            -11.2
Lake Buchanan       1020                1015.8             -4.2
Lake Travis          681                 666.5            -14.5

Restrictions...

The San Antonio Water System (SAWS) is currently in Year Round
water conservation measures.

Latest Readings from the Edwards Aquifer:

 Current      2017 Level   Departure     May  Departure from
  Level      on this date  from 2017   Average       Average

 659.5 FT      671.1 FT    -12.2 FT     665.6 FT      -6.1 FT

Many communities across South Central Texas continue to have
year round conservation measures in place.

The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District is
currently in no drought status.

Location          Current Water Restrictions

Fredericksburg    Stage 1
New Braunfels     Non-Stage Rules - Year round conservation
San Marcos        Year round conservation measures
Uvalde            Stage 1
Austin            Conservation Stage
Kerrville         Year round conservation measures

All cities continue to warn residents that stricter restrictions
could return at any time if drier conditions develop.

Locations that do not currently have mandatory restrictions
continue to strongly promote year round water conservation.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

This product will be issued again on May 31, 2018 or sooner if
conditions warrant.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

For further information on the drought impacting South Central
Texas, please visit the following web addresses.

Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service:
weather.gov/austin
weatehr.gov/sanantonio
weatehr.gov/ewx

Climate Prediction Center:
cpc.ncep.noaa/gov

U.S. Drought Monitor:
droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Office of the Texas State Climatologist:
climatexas.tamu.edu

United States Geologic Survey (USGS):
water.usgs.gov

United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE):
swf.usace.army.mil

International BOundary and Water Commission:
ibwc.state/gov

Acknowledgments...

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service, National Climatic Data Center, the
USDA, State and Regional Center Climatologist and the National
Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has
been  gathered from NWS and FAA Observation sites, State
Cooperative Extension Service, the USDA, USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this Drought
Information Statement, please contact...

National Weather Service
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels Texas 78130
830-606-3617 Press 2

$$


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